For the first time in nearly three decades, the United States has officially revoked Colombia’s Drug Certification. The decision, announced by the White House, delivers a stinging blow to Bogota’s reputation and places new strain on a relationship long considered one of Washington’s strongest security partnerships in Latin America. But even as the political fallout begins to unfold, attention has quickly shifted to a crucial lifeline: the waiver.
This presidential tool, little known outside of policy circles, may prove decisive in ensuring that Colombia avoids the harshest consequences of decertification while preserving cooperation on defense, migration, and peacebuilding.
What losing US Drug Certification means for Colombia
Under the 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act, the U.S. president must annually evaluate whether countries classified as major drug producers or transit nations are “fully cooperating” with Washington’s counter-narcotics goals. Decertification amounts to a declaration that Colombia has not met those expectations.
The ruling has immediate symbolic weight. Colombia, once hailed as a model partner in the U.S.-backed “war on drugs,” is now formally failing to combat cocaine cultivation and trafficking. The country remains the world’s leading producer of coca leaf, and while seizures and interdiction operations have reached record highs, U.S. officials say cultivation is expanding and eradication goals have fallen short.
Beyond symbolism, losing the U.S. Drug Certification carries material risks. It can restrict access to certain forms of U.S. foreign assistance, complicate Colombia’s standing with international lenders such as the World Bank or IMF, and embolden critics of President Gustavo Petro’s shift toward a more developmental and public-health-oriented drug policy.
Still, decertification is not the final word. The White House has the power to issue a waiver, effectively overriding the most severe sanctions if doing so is judged to be in the U.S.’s “national interest.” That option is now the focal point of Bogota’s diplomatic efforts.
The waiver: a safety net in US foreign policy
The waiver pretends to protect U.S. strategic interests when drug policy disputes threaten to disrupt wider cooperation. In practice, it allows the president to send a strong signal of disapproval while ensuring that bilateral ties remain intact.
Historically, waivers have been used for countries such as Mexico, Bolivia, and Venezuela, where Washington chose to preserve cooperation despite dissatisfaction with counternarcotics performance. For Colombia, which remains central to U.S. security interests in the hemisphere, the waiver could be decisive.
President Donald Trump faces a balancing act. By revoking Colombia’s Drug Certification, he has responded to mounting pressure from U.S. lawmakers frustrated by rising cocaine production. But through a waiver, he can also recognize that Colombia’s partnership is too important to jeopardize. Such a move would allow intelligence sharing, military training, and financial support for peace initiatives to continue, even as Washington signals its discontent.
A blow to Petro’s drug policy
The decertification marks a direct challenge to President Gustavo Petro’s drug strategy, which departs from the eradication-heavy model that dominated Colombian policy for decades. Petro has argued that the old formula — focusing on aerial fumigation and forced eradication — only deepened rural poverty and fueled violence. Instead, his administration has emphasized voluntary crop substitution, rural development, and a health-centered approach to drug consumption.
While those reforms resonate with many Colombians and align with broader debates on drug decriminalization in the region, Washington remains skeptical. U.S. officials point to expanding coca crops and argue that Petro’s strategy is failing to deliver short-term reductions in supply. Decertification, then, is not only a diplomatic rebuke but also a warning that Washington expects more measurable results.
The waiver could soften that rebuke, but it does not erase the message. Petro’s government must now manage the optics of being publicly singled out by its most powerful ally, even as it argues that long-term peacebuilding requires patience and a break from punitive drug war orthodoxy.
Colombia’s case for the US Drug Certification waiver
In Washington, Colombia’s diplomats are lobbying intensely to ensure the U.S. Drug Certification waiver is applied. Their case rests on several pillars. First, they argue that Colombia’s efforts cannot be measured only in hectares of coca eradicated. The country has seized record amounts of cocaine shipments in the past two years and continues to dismantle powerful trafficking networks.
Second, Colombia plays a crucial role in regional stability. It has absorbed nearly three million Venezuelan migrants, provides intelligence on transnational crime, and remains a bulwark against the growing influence of China and Russia in Latin America. To punish Colombia with full sanctions, they warn, would undermine broader U.S. interests at a delicate moment.
Finally, Colombian officials stress the dangers of weakening cooperation. Cutting back assistance would not only harm counternarcotics programs but also jeopardize rural development projects and reintegration efforts tied to the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas. Those initiatives, they argue, are essential to reducing the long-term drivers of drug production.
The risks of living under a waiver
While the waiver offers relief, it also comes with strings attached. For one, it is entirely discretionary, leaving Colombia vulnerable to future shifts in Washington’s political climate. A change in administration — or even in congressional priorities — could see the waiver withdrawn, exposing Bogota to the full force of decertification.
There is also the issue of perception. Even with a waiver, Colombia’s international reputation has taken a hit. Investors and global financial institutions may interpret decertification as a sign of policy instability, complicating efforts to attract capital and negotiate loans. Domestically, Petro’s critics will seize on the ruling as evidence that his drug policy is alienating Colombia’s most important ally.
For Washington, the waiver also provides leverage. U.S. officials could use the threat of withholding it in the future to push Colombia toward stricter eradication targets or more aggressive interdiction campaigns, creating new tensions in the bilateral relationship.
The U.S.’ decision to decertify Colombia marks a turning point in a partnership that has shaped hemispheric security for decades. But thanks to the waiver, the rupture may not be total. Instead, both countries are entering a new, more fragile phase — one where cooperation continues, but under a cloud of mistrust and political calculation.
For Colombia, the task is to prove that its evolving drug strategy can eventually deliver results without alienating its most powerful ally. For Washington, the challenge is balancing domestic political demands for tougher counternarcotics action with the strategic need to preserve its closest partner in South America.
In that uneasy middle ground, the waiver becomes more than a legal clause. It is a symbol of the enduring, if increasingly strained, ties between Bogota and Washington — and a reminder that even in moments of sharp disagreement, both sides may find it too costly to walk away.
Related: Petro Says Colombia Won’t Resume Forced Coca Eradication After US Decertification.