Colombia is entering a new chapter in its energy story, and it is not a reassuring one. In 2024, the country crossed a threshold that energy experts had long warned about: the beginning of permanent natural gas imports for sectors beyond thermal power generation. According to the latest report from Promigas, one of the country’s largest energy transport and distribution companies, this shift marks the end of Colombia’s full self-sufficiency in gas supply.
The situation comes at a particularly delicate moment. Not only has Colombia’s proven gas supply dropped dramatically — falling 64% in just over a decade — but the debate about how to replace those reserves overlaps with national and international commitments to address climate change. The challenge is twofold: guaranteeing enough fuel to keep households, vehicles, and industries running smoothly, while also aligning with an energy transition agenda that demands cleaner, more sustainable practices.
From abundance to deficit: why Colombia’s proven gas reserves are shrinking so quickly
The numbers are stark. By the end of 2024, Colombia’s proven natural gas reserves stood at 2,064 giga cubic feet (Gpc). That may sound like a large volume, but at current consumption levels, it is only enough to cover five years and nine months of domestic demand. In 2012, reserves were more than double that figure — 5,720 Gpc — which gave the country nearly two decades of supply security.
The decline has been steady, but in the past four years it accelerated dramatically. The dynamic is simple but troubling, new reserves are not being added at the pace they are being used. Last year, Colombia added just 42 Gpc in new reserves, while it consumed 351 Gpc. That gap alone explains why proven reserves fell by more than 300 Gpc in a single year.
Juan Manuel Rojas, the president of Promigas, acknowledges that Colombia does have important natural gas resources — particularly offshore discoveries in the Caribbean — but they remain untapped. He attributes the bottleneck to a mix of technical, environmental, and social challenges, as well as contractual and regulatory uncertainty.
Unless these obstacles are overcome, he argues, Colombia will continue to depend on costly imports rather than benefiting from its own resources. For Rojas, the key lies in long-term planning and better coordination between government agencies, private companies, and local communities.
The rising cost of imported gas: households, industry, and transportation on the hook
The decline in reserves is not just a matter of statistics, it translates directly into higher costs for millions of Colombians. Former Minister of Mines and Energy Amylkar Acosta has been vocal about the consequences of relying on imported gas. He points out that imported supply can cost up to twice as much as gas produced locally. That price difference will eventually show up in monthly bills for Colombia’s 12 million residential users, with some estimates warning of increases above 20%.
The impact would not stop there. Around 650,000 vehicles in Colombia run on natural gas, chosen by drivers because of its affordability compared to gasoline. With imports driving up prices, those cost advantages could disappear, straining family budgets and small businesses alike. Industries that depend on natural gas as a raw material or energy source would also see higher operating costs, undermining their competitiveness in both local and international markets. Even thermal power plants, which stabilize the electricity grid, would generate more expensive electricity, meaning higher rates for consumers.
Acosta has also expressed doubts about one of the government’s proposed solutions: importing gas from Venezuela. Given the political instability and infrastructure challenges in that country, he believes such a strategy is unreliable and potentially unsustainable. His skepticism reflects a broader concern shared by analysts that Colombia cannot afford to depend on external suppliers without having a clear, diversified plan in place.
Balancing energy security and sustainability: Can Colombia unlock its offshore potential?
Beyond immediate supply issues, the debate over gas touches on larger questions about Colombia’s economic future. Tomas Gonzalez, director of the Regional Energy Studies Center, argues that the country is facing a fundamental mismatch, domestic supply is no longer enough to meet demand. Without new investments in exploration and production, the gap will only widen.
Frank Pearl, president of the Colombian Petroleum and Gas Association (ACP), believes that the solution lies in rebuilding investor confidence. In his view, Colombia must offer stable rules, legal certainty, and secure conditions in the territories where exploration is taking place. This would attract the capital needed to develop offshore fields and expand infrastructure, such as pipelines and regasification terminals. Pearl also stresses that natural gas should not be seen as an obstacle to the energy transition but as a partner. By responsibly developing reserves with strong environmental safeguards, Colombia could ensure fiscal stability, maintain competitiveness, and prepare producing regions for future economic diversification.
Pearl frames the dilemma in straightforward terms: Colombia can either leave its gas resources untapped — facing higher energy bills, reduced competitiveness, and fiscal strain — or it can extract them responsibly, using the revenues to fund new industries and social programs.
Understanding the Numbers: What Do ‘proven’ and ‘probable’ reserves mean?
For the general public, the terminology around reserves can be confusing. Proven reserves are quantities of oil or gas that geological and engineering data confirm can be commercially recovered under current conditions. In practical terms, they represent the “bank account” of resources that Colombia can confidently count on. In contrast, probable reserves are those that have a reasonable chance — typically about 50% — of being extracted but are less certain. The distinction matters because proven reserves provide energy security, while probable reserves are still in the “maybe” category until further exploration, investment, and regulatory approval move them into production.
A race against time?
The steep decline of Colombia’s natural gas reserves is more than an energy story; it is an economic and social one. Millions of households, thousands of businesses, and key industries will feel the ripple effects of rising costs and uncertainty. At the same time, policymakers are tasked with balancing immediate supply concerns with long-term sustainability goals.
Experts across the board — from Juan Manuel Rojas at Promigas to Amylkar Acosta and Frank Pearl — agree on one point: Colombia cannot afford to delay decisions any longer. Developing offshore fields, strengthening contractual frameworks, and building infrastructure will take years. If action is not taken quickly, the country risks being locked into dependency on expensive imports, with all the fiscal and social consequences that come with it.
In the end, Colombia’s gas crisis is a reminder of how fragile energy security can be, and how much foresight and cooperation are needed to safeguard it. The question now is whether political leaders, businesses, and communities can come together fast enough to prevent today’s supply gap from turning into tomorrow’s full-blown energy emergency.