Colombia had 25,278 people bearing illegal arms as of an intelligence consolidation in August, a 15% increase from the 21,958 counted in January, according to an exclusive report published by local outlet El Tiempo and based on national intelligence assessments.
The rise is an increase of 3,320 combatants in the first eight months of the year, coinciding with the government’s high-profile “paz total” policy designed to reach out to armed groups, and comes amid what authorities and analysts describe as worsening public-order indicators, including forced displacement, confinements, extortion, and selective killings.
The report shows that most major armed organizations expanded their ranks. The Clan del Golfo remained the largest group, growing to about 8,945 members from 7,551 in the previous tally. Intelligence breaks that figure into roughly 5,788 members of support networks and 3,157 combatants, compared with 4,876 and 2,675, respectively, in the earlier count.
The intelligence files say the Clan del Golfo has strengthened its hold over key trafficking, extortion, and illegal-mining corridors in the regions of Uraba and Bajo Cauca.
Beyond the increase in the number of people bearing illegal arms in Colombia, ELN’s numbers have also grown
The Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) rose about 3%, from 6,245 to 6,450 members, with the report noting recent additions from the ELN’s Central Command and national leadership reinforcing frontier zones with Venezuela. Disidents of the former FARC guerrillas increased collectively, from 7,920 to 9,215, with factions led by Nestor Gregorio Vera Fernandez, alias Ivan Mordisco, and Alexander Diaz, alias Calarca Cordoba, among those registering growth.
The intelligence assessment attributed much of the expansion to expanded territorial presence, recruitment, including through social media, and of minors, and the strengthening of illicit economies such as coca cultivation and cocaine production. It said more than 1,000 operations have been conducted against different structures this year, but those operations have not halted recruitment.
Security forces have struck hard against some groups. The report notes 73 operations targeting the Clan del Golfo in the last nine months that produced 554 arrests and 14 deaths, including the killing of a senior commander identified as Jose Miguel Demoya, alias “Chirimoya.”
Recruitment by Segunda Marquetalia group fell in 2025
Not all groups grew. The report said Segunda Marquetalia, long implicated in violent acts and under investigation by Colombian authorities for high-profile crimes such as the assassination of Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, fell sharply, from 2,141 members (1,537 combatants and 604 support) to a total of 532 (289 combatants and 243 support).
The intelligence document also highlighted geographic concentrations of growth in Antioquia, Cordoba, Choco, Sucre, La Guajira, Cesar, Atlantico, Magdalena, and Bolivar, areas where armed groups have vied for corridors and control of rural economies.
The situation has had diplomatic and financial consequences. The report cites U.S. Treasury findings that helped trigger a conditional decertification in Washington and the inclusion of Colombia on the so-called Clinton List, a designation that the Treasury said was tied to alleged government provision of benefits to narcoterrorist organizations under parts of the “Paz Total” policy and to record levels of coca cultivation.
The report frames the expansion of illegal arms networks as one of the biggest threats to Colombia’s national security
Analysts warned that the trend creates an acute challenge for the next government. Gerson Arias of the Fundacion Ideas para la Paz, quoted in the report, said neither former President Ivan Duque nor President Gustavo Petro “were able to stop the growth and expansion of armed groups,” and urged that a future strategy combine negotiation with a sustained state presence in affected territories.
The intelligence assessment, the El Tiempo reporting said, frames the expansion of illegal armed networks as one of the gravest threats to national security and to the stability of rural communities still caught in the long-running conflict.
It calls for an “integral strategy” that pairs dialogue with stronger territorial control to halt recruitment and the widening reach of illicit economies.