A new OECD report confirms the positive outlook for Colombia’s economy in the coming years, despite inflationary challenges, the increase in the fiscal deficit, and the significant pressure of an interest rate at 9.25% for more than six months. After revising its estimates upward, the organization expects the country to grow by about 2.8% in 2025 and 2026, and to reach 2.9% in 2027.
These figures represent a relatively optimistic bet in a global context marked by slowdowns, trade tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty following the trade war launched by President Donald Trump at the beginning of this year. At the same time, these projections place Colombia ahead of advanced economies such as the United States or several European countries.
Although this is not overwhelming growth — still modest compared with the standards of dynamic emerging economies — the numbers suggest that the Colombian economy could remain stable and even gain relative ground on the international stage.
OECD report: Colombia poised to outpace US growth in 2026 and 2027
Recent OECD projections show an improvement over previous estimates: The rate for 2025 rose from 2.5% to 2.8%, and the rate for 2026 increased from 2.6% to 2.8%. For 2027, the projected growth of 2.9% would mark progress over previous years, though not an abrupt jump.
The momentum behind this growth would not rely exclusively on consumption: The recovery of investment — especially in construction and infrastructure — appears as one of the expected drivers. However, OECD warns that this recovery will be gradual and partial, as investment remains below the levels seen before the pandemic. At the same time, private consumption — supported by the strength of the labor market, remittances, and relative stability in domestic income — will remain key.
For its part, the external sector, which had historically been an important component of Colombian growth, will face more difficult conditions: The contribution of exports is not considered to be in a moment of boom due to high international uncertainty, tariff changes, and weaker external stimuli.
Thus, although growth would not surge, there are grounds for a path of stabilization and gradual recovery, as long as domestic policies and the global context align.
Possible shadows over the Colombian economy
Despite the relatively favorable scenario, the OECD report notes that the risks have not disappeared. The first of these is the fragility of investment: Although it is expected to recover gradually, its level is still significantly lower than before the pandemic, which limits the potential for faster growth.
On the other hand, global uncertainty — marked by trade tensions, fluctuations in commodity prices, international inflation, and changes in capital flows — may weaken external demand for Colombia, affecting its exports and the inflow of foreign investment.
Another factor of concern is the internal macroeconomic environment: Although private consumption remains dynamic, a high and persistent fiscal deficit, along with inflationary pressures, could undermine medium-term stability. Thus, the challenge for authorities and the private sector will be to consolidate a sustainable growth path that does not depend solely on consumption, but on structural improvements in investment, productivity, and economic governance.
Why compare with the United States and Europe?
The relevance of the OECD’s estimate for Colombia increases when placed in a global perspective: While the organization projects moderate global growth toward 2026–2027, with weakness in advanced economies, many of those economies anticipate expansions of around 1.5%–2.0%. In that context, a rate close to 2.8%–2.9% for Colombia is competitive, suggesting that the country could outperform several high-income economies.
This contrast draws attention not only because of the development gap, but also because of the possibility that a Latin American country could achieve solid stability amid a complicated global environment. For investors, international players, and decision-makers, these projections position Colombia as an emerging economy with relative appeal compared with traditional powers.
However, this comparison should not be read as an absolute guarantee: Advanced economies have different dynamics, more sophisticated market structures, and wider innovation margins. Moreover, Colombia’s internal challenges — such as the recovery of investment, persistent inflation, or fiscal imbalances — may act as a brake if not managed carefully.