Inflation in February in Colombia fell slightly to 5.29% year-on-year, with a monthly variation of 1.08%. The figure surprised economic analysts who, after January’s slight increase —from 5.1% to 5.35%— had expected a rise of up to 0.5% that ultimately did not occur.
According to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), which released the figure tonight, the data contradicts all forecasts by financial institutions and economic experts who had predicted a significant increase, especially linked to the 23% rise in the minimum wage for 2026, something that did not happen.
Inflation edges down in February in Colombia
Inflation in Colombia recorded a slight decline in February, standing at 5.29% year-on-year, a figure slightly lower than that observed in January and one that contradicts the most pessimistic predictions of most economic experts and financial institutions in the country. In fact, the data confirms the gradual trend toward price moderation following the inflation peaks of previous years and suggests that the historic increase in the minimum wage is not negatively affecting inflation, as had been predicted.
However, inflation remains far from the target set by Colombia’s economic authorities, which place the desired threshold at 3%, a figure that has not been achieved for several years due to both internal and external causes.
February’s result is largely explained by the slowdown in some spending categories that had strongly pushed up the cost of living in recent months. Among them are food and non-alcoholic beverages, which showed a more moderate variation compared with that recorded at the beginning of the year. The stabilization of prices for agricultural products and a greater supply in several regional markets helped contain the increase in this component, one of the most sensitive for Colombian households.
Also influencing the figure was the more stable behavior of transportation costs—after the increases in January—and some services, in a context in which tariff adjustments were less pronounced than in previous periods. Nevertheless, transportation continues to be one of the categories with the greatest impact on the overall index, due to the weight that fuels, mobility services, and logistics costs have in the national economy.
Among the categories with the largest increases in February are Food (5.84%), Education (5.64%) —which every year carries significant weight in the CPI of the second month of the year due to the start of the new academic term—, and Housing, which in total rose by 3.8% year-on-year. Despite the appearance of food and non-alcoholic beverages in this category, it is confirmed that their increase was lower than in January, contributing to the slight decline—of 0.06% compared with the month of January.
#IPC | En febrero de 2026, el Índice de Precios al Consumidor registró una variación anual del 5,29%, mientras que la variación mensual fue del 1,08%. pic.twitter.com/sa9abPBFFg
— DANE Colombia (@DANE_Colombia) March 6, 2026
The data contradicts the forecasts of economic experts
The data released today differs from the forecasts of the financial market, which pointed to an acceleration to 5.5% annually and 1.22% monthly. According to the Citi survey, which reflects the views of 24 financial institutions, expectations were for a new increase in inflation.
In this regard, of the total number of institutions, 19 expected a new acceleration for the second consecutive month after the indicator stood at 5.1% in December and 5.35% in January.
Banco Popular, Acciones y Valores, and Bancóldex had the highest forecasts, at 5.86%, 5.79%, and 5.76%, respectively. In the same group, Corficolombiana was the most cautious in its projection, at 5.44%.
Despite these projections, the 5.29% figure — almost the same as in January — demonstrates the complexities of a sector that Colombian economic authorities are trying to ease by maintaining high interest rates, despite requests from the government, which for more than a year has been calling for cuts that would favor access to credit.