Colombia stands to lose roughly one-fifth of its cocoa areas to climate change by 2050, according to new research published in the journal Regional Environmental Change. The study, led by Tobias Fremout of the Alliance of Bioversity International, offers the first nationwide look at how rising temperatures could reshape the country’s cacao-growing landscape.
Colombia ranks as the world’s 10th largest cocoa (the cacao powder) producer. It harvested around 60,000 tons in 2023. The crop supports some 65,000 farming families, mostly smallholders, and generates more than 150,000 jobs. The country has also become an emerging force in the fine-flavour cocoa market. Its exports more than tripled between 2011 and 2020.
But that progress now faces a climate threat. Researchers used a combination of advanced habitat suitability models to map current and future growing conditions for both commercially cultivated and wild cacao across the country. Their models predict that about 19% to 20% of currently suitable areas could become unsuitable within the next 25 years.
The most vulnerable zones sit in the lowlands. Northern Colombia, parts of the northeastern Orinoquia plains, and scattered areas along the Pacific coast face the steepest declines. About 97% of the areas expected to lose suitability lie below 400 meters (1,312 feet) above sea level. Rising temperatures in these low-lying regions are pushing conditions beyond what cacao can tolerate.
A silver lining for Colombia’s cacao areas in the Andes
There is a silver lining, however. The Andean foothills, where most of Colombia’s commercial cacao farming currently takes place, are projected to remain suitable through at least the 2050s. Researchers also found a small expansion opportunity of about 3%, mostly at higher elevations. The upper boundary of suitable land for cacao could shift from around 1,578 meters (5,177 feet) today to nearly 1,956 meters (6,417 feet) under a high-emissions scenario.
The picture looks brighter for wild cacao. Unlike cultivated varieties, wild populations in the Amazon lowlands are expected to see a net range expansion of up to 24% under a more optimistic climate pathway.
Researchers say this makes wild cacao a potentially valuable genetic resource. These populations could hold traits such as heat tolerance or flood resilience that breeders might use to develop hardier commercial varieties.
“The findings stress the importance of conserving wild cacao populations,” the study notes, adding that these genetic resources could play a key role in climate-smart breeding efforts.
To guide local adaptation, the research team divided Colombia’s cacao regions into seven distinct “ecogeographical zones” with similar environmental conditions. Each zone faces different risks.
In the hot lowlands, the researchers recommend widespread adoption of agroforestry systems. Shade trees can lower temperatures beneath the canopy by up to 6 to 7 degrees Celsius (about 11 to 13 degrees Fahrenheit). That kind of cooling could prove critical as heat extremes grow more frequent.
Searching for climate-resilient cacao genes
The team also identified cacao populations growing at the extreme edges of the crop’s climate tolerance. These outlier locations, found in the hottest, driest, wettest, and highest-elevation spots, may harbour genotypes naturally adapted to harsh conditions. Researchers flagged these sites as priority targets for collecting climate-resilient planting material.
The study does carry limitations. The models assess environmental suitability but do not account for changes in yields, bean quality, or pest and disease pressure. They also do not factor in adaptation measures such as irrigation or the potential benefits of rising carbon dioxide levels on plant growth. The researchers called for follow-up work using crop models that can capture these physiological responses.
Still, the findings carry urgency. Recent spikes in global cocoa prices, driven partly by weather-related crop failures in West Africa, have underscored just how vulnerable the industry is to a changing climate. For Colombia, the message is clear: Its most productive cacao areas may hold steady for now, but preparing for what comes next cannot wait.