The latest poll on voting intention for Colombia’s presidential elections in May, conducted by the Spanish consulting firm GAD3 for local television channel RCN and published this Thursday, confirms a trend that had already been emerging in previous measurements: the consolidation of a three-candidate race with real chances, led by Ivan Cepeda.
The survey places the left-wing candidate at 35% support, a figure that keeps him as the clear frontrunner, although he has not managed to expand his lead in recent weeks. In second place is Abelardo De la Espriella, who reaches 21% of voting intention, registering a drop compared to the previous poll.
Third place goes to Paloma Valencia, with 16%, representing the most significant growth in the study. Although the ranking of candidates remains unchanged, internal shifts reflect a more competitive dynamic within the bloc opposing the race leader.
New poll on Colombia’s presidential race: De la Espriella loses momentum
The most relevant finding of the study is the stability of Ivan Cepeda in first place. With 35%, the ruling party’s candidate remains firmly at the top of the presidential race—one point lower than in the previous survey—consolidating a core group of voters that, for now, appears resistant to changes in the political environment.
However, the stagnation in his voting intention is also beginning to be a point of analysis. Unlike earlier stages, Cepeda has not managed to widen his lead or capitalize on fluctuations among his opponents. This suggests that his electoral ceiling may be closer than expected or that he is facing difficulties attracting new segments of the electorate beyond his consolidated base.
In strategic terms, this scenario forces his campaign to focus not only on maintaining its lead but also on preventing opposition fragmentation from converging into a single candidacy that could challenge him in a potential runoff.
Second place remains in the hands of Abelardo De la Espriella, but with signs of wear. The candidate records 21% of voting intention, five points lower than in the previous poll, indicating a loss of momentum at a key moment in the campaign following the emergence of his main competitor within the same ideological spectrum: Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Center.
Although the drop does not displace him from his position, it does reduce the gap separating him from Valencia. This setback may be linked to several factors, including the persistence of a hardline message that fails to attract voters beyond his initial base, but the difficulty in expanding his electorate is clearly tied to direct competition within the same ideological spectrum.
This is especially relevant because, in a three-candidate race, any decline can alter the dynamics of the contest. De la Espriella remains competitive, but his room for maneuver is shrinking as Valencia gains ground.
The rise of Paloma Valencia in a three-way contest
Paloma Valencia’s growth is one of the most notable elements of the poll. With 16% voting intention, the candidate consolidates her position in third place while significantly narrowing the gap with De la Espriella.
Her rise suggests a partial reconfiguration of the right and center-right electorate, where she is beginning to capture support that had previously been concentrated in other options. This shift does not change the ranking of candidates, but it introduces greater competition for second place.
Moreover, Valencia’s advance could have strategic implications in the final stretch of the campaign. If the trend continues, she could position herself as the main alternative within her sector, displacing De la Espriella and redefining the balance of power ahead of the first round.
Beyond individual movements, the poll reinforces a central conclusion that became clear after the March 8 votes: Colombia’s presidential election is shaping up as a contest among three clearly defined candidates. Cepeda, De la Espriella, and Valencia account for most of the voting intention, leaving little room for other candidacies.
This scenario reduces uncertainty about who has real chances of advancing, but increases internal competition among those vying for second place. Stability in the ranking does not imply a lack of change, but rather a gradual redistribution of support within a relatively stable framework.
The consolidation of this structure also suggests that the campaign will enter a more intense phase, where margins will become increasingly narrow and shifts more decisive.
Outlook toward the first round
Beyond the three leading candidates, eleven other contenders are competing in the first round on May 31, but, according to all polls, without real chances. In fourth place is former Bogota mayor Claudia Lopez, a centrist, with 4% voting intention. She is followed by fellow centrist Sergio Fajardo, former governor of Antioquia, who receives 3% support in his third presidential run.
Although both are effectively out of contention to win the vote, their support could be decisive in forming majorities in the runoff, which is expected to take place on June 21 if no candidate obtains 50% of the vote in the first round.
Other candidates with even fewer chances include Miguel Uribe Londoño, Santiago Botero, and Luis Gilberto Murillo, all with 1%. Notably, despite having won the Frente por la Vida primary, Roy Barreras registers a negligible 0.1%.
Others with minimal results include Carlos Caicedo (0.3%), Clara Lopez (0.2%), and Mauricio Lizcano (0.1%). The remaining two candidates, completing the 14 contenders in the first round, do not appear or were not included.
For the three main contenders, the key will be how these trends evolve in the coming weeks and their ability to attract votes beyond their natural base. If Cepeda manages to break through his ceiling, he could be on track for a more comfortable victory—something he may need in any case for a potential runoff, as he currently stands as the only left-wing candidate.
On the other hand, if the opposition manages to consolidate support behind a single figure, the scenario could change significantly in the June 21 vote. Both De la Espriella and Valencia have already indicated this possibility, having pledged to support each other in a second round that could pit one of them against Cepeda.
Runoff scenarios
In a hypothetical runoff on June 21, leftist Ivan Cepeda strengthens his chances of victory against Abelardo De la Espriella, with 45% to the far-right candidate’s 36%. However, both show upward trends, with a wider gap in favor of the ruling party candidate compared to previous polls.
In another possible scenario in which Cepeda faces Paloma Valencia, the study gives him 43% voting intention and her 40%. Despite maintaining the same outcome—a left-wing victory—it is notable that right-wing candidate Valencia grew by 15 points, while Cepeda increased by only 3 compared to other polls. Taking into account the survey’s margin of error, they are effectively tied in a runoff.
Thus, the scenario remains open with slight adjustments compared to previous expectations: Cepeda is consolidating as a safe bet for the runoff, while the right-wing vote appears to be shifting toward Paloma Valencia. For now, however, De la Espriella remains ahead of the Democratic Center candidate—something that could change if conservative voters see her as having a better chance of defeating the progressive candidate in a second round, a point Valencia will undoubtedly emphasize in the upcoming campaign.