A new poll by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC) for Cambio magazine, published Sunday, March 22, 2026, reshapes Colombia’s presidential race: Paloma Valencia jumps to second place in the first round, displacing De la Espriella, and pulls into a statistical tie with Ivan Cepeda in a potential runoff.
The tie that changes everything
Ivan Cepeda leads voting intention with 34.5%, followed by Paloma Valencia at 22.2% and Abelardo de la Espriella at 15.4%. Claudia Lopez and Sergio Fajardo hold fourth and fifth place with 3.7% and 3.6% respectively. All other candidates on the ballot receive less than 2% of the vote. Blank votes account for 6.5%, ‘none of the above’ for 1.9%, and ‘don’t know’ or ‘no answer’ for 8%.
The poll surveyed 2,157 people through in-person household interviews across 56 municipalities between March 17 and 21. The margin of error is ±3.0% with a 95% confidence level according to the technical sheet provided by CNC.
The most significant finding comes from the runoff projections. Valencia reaches 42.9% against Cepeda’s 43.3%. With a margin of error of 3%, that 0.4 point gap puts both candidates in a statistical tie. Until this poll, no candidate had come close to Cepeda in any runoff scenario.
The contrast with other challengers is stark. In a direct runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda, the result stands at 35.5% against 48.1%. Lopez would draw 26.6% against Cepeda’s 47.3%. Fajardo would reach 31.6% against that same figure. Valencia is the only candidate who brings the contest to genuine parity.
Valencia’s surge and the Oviedo factor
Three weeks before the March 8 inter-party primaries, Valencia sat in fifth place with just 4.1% of voting intention. She now stands at 22.2%. That jump follows her victory in the Gran Consulta por Colombia and her selection of Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate.
A total of 52.1% of respondents say the vice-presidential announcements influenced their choice of presidential candidate. Oviedo ranks as the second most popular running mate at 25.8%, just behind Cepeda’s partner Aida Quilcue at 26.8%. That support makes Oviedo a key electoral asset for Valencia, particularly among centrist voters previously out of reach for the right.
Valencia also shows a clear advantage among women. She records 24.3% of female voting intention compared to 19% among men. Most women surveyed identify health as the country’s main problem, while men point to corruption. That gap will shape Valencia’s campaign priorities over the next 70 days.
Alliances and the weight of smaller votes
With Cepeda stalled at 34.5% and Valencia rising, the runoff outcome will hinge on where the votes currently behind Lopez, Fajardo and De la Espriella land. Those three candidates together hold more than 22 percentage points of first-round voting intention, a combined bloc large enough to decide the winner in any runoff scenario.
Lopez and Fajardo represent the centrist vote. Neither has announced a formal alliance, but their support could prove decisive in building a majority in the second round. That sector has historically resisted both the ruling left and the traditional right, making any endorsement a complex negotiation for both camps.
De la Espriella has publicly ruled out any coalition. “Whoever negotiates with the devil ends up tangled,” he said in a recent statement. His voter base, however, is a bloc Valencia is already targeting should she advance to the runoff.
Cepeda steady, but not growing
Cepeda holds the lead at 34.5% but has not expanded his advantage. A GAD3 poll for RCN, published March 19, already showed him at 35%, a nearly identical figure. That stagnation concerns the Pacto Historico, whose goal is to win outright in the first round and avoid a more uncertain runoff.
Cepeda has set an internal condition: no alliance moves forward without his personal approval. That rule gives him control over his image but also narrows his room to negotiate with other parties at a moment when every percentage point matters.
With 70 days until the May 31 first round, and a potential runoff on June 21, the presidential race has a new shape. Cepeda leads, Valencia pushes hard from second place, and the bloc of votes currently split among Lopez, Fajardo and De la Espriella will decide who reaches the Casa de Nariño.
All candidates in the first round
Complete first-round voting intention results from the CNC poll:
Iván Cepeda: 34.5 %
Paloma Valencia: 22.2 %
Abelardo de la Espriella: 15.4 %
Claudia Lopez: 3.7 %
Sergio Fajardo: 3.6 %
Santiago Botero: 1.3 %
Miguel Uribe Londoño: 1 %
Roy Barreras: 0.5 %
Sondra Macollins: 0.4 %
Clara López: 0.3 %
Gustavo Matamoros: 0.2 %
Luis Gilberto Murillo: 0.2 %
Mauricio Lizcano: 0.2 %
Carlos Caicedo: 0.1 %
Blank vote: 6.5 %
None of the above: 1.9 %
Don’t know or no answer: 8 %