IMF Lowers Colombia’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 2.3%

Written on 04/15/2026
Josep Freixes
The IMF has lowered its forecast for Colombia’s economic growth in 2026 to 2.3%, in line with the broader trend in Latin America. Credit: Josep Maria Freixes / Colombia One.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again cooled expectations for the Colombian economy, as well as for nearly all of Latin America. In its latest update, the organization cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.3%, a figure that confirms a slowdown compared to previous estimates and places the country on a path of moderate expansion, far from pre-pandemic growth rates.

The adjustment comes at a time when the global economy is going through a period of heightened uncertainty marked by geopolitical tensions, volatility in energy prices, and still-restrictive financial conditions.

In this context, Latin America once again faces a scenario of structurally low growth, with limited fiscal space and persistent difficulties in boosting investment and productivity.

IMF lowers Colombia’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.3%

The 2.3% forecast for 2026 reflects both external factors and internal weaknesses. On the one hand, the country remains exposed to international shocks, particularly through oil prices, capital flows, and external demand.

On the other, it continues to grapple with structural problems that limit its growth capacity, such as low productivity, labor informality—longstanding features of the country’s economic structure—and fiscal constraints.

The IMF’s downgrade represents an adjustment from more optimistic estimates circulating months ago. Local analysts and institutions such as the central bank (Banco de la Republica) had projected figures close to or above 2.6%, or even 2.8%, in a scenario of gradual recovery following the recent slowdown.

However, the evolution of the economy in 2025 and especially the deterioration of the international environment, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, have led to those expectations being revised downward.

The domestic context also weighs heavily. Colombia faces the challenge of rebuilding its fiscal accounts after years of high spending and weak revenue collection, alongside a monetary policy that, amid political controversy, remains restrictive by historical standards. Added to this is regulatory uncertainty in key sectors and a political climate that has at times affected investor confidence.

Even so, the projected growth does not imply a crisis, but rather a contained expansion. Private consumption remains a key support, driven by employment and remittances, while investment shows mixed signals. The economy is moving forward, but at a pace that makes it difficult to close social gaps and improve indicators such as poverty and informality.

Regarding rising prices, the report projects that Colombia’s inflation, which stood at 5.1% in 2025, will climb to 5.9% this year, making it the fourth highest in South America, behind Venezuela (387.4%), Argentina (30.4%), and Bolivia (20.7%).

The international organization expects that by 2027, the consumer price index (CPI) will decline to 5.2%, still far from the baseline target used by Colombia’s monetary authority, which is 3%—a figure the South American country has not achieved in six years.

Latin America: a region trapped in low growth

The regional outlook is not much different. The IMF estimates that Latin America will grow by around 2.2% in 2026, a figure that keeps it below the average for emerging economies and highlights its structural limitations.

The region faces a combination of adverse factors. External demand remains weak, financing costs are still high, and private investment has yet to take off strongly. This is compounded by political tensions in several countries and an increasingly uncertain international environment.

Recent revisions by international organizations point in the same direction. The World Bank, for example, has also cut its forecasts for Latin America, placing growth at around 2.1% and highlighting the persistence of issues such as low productivity and weak investment.

At the same time, the global context is adding pressure. The IMF has warned that the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and movements in oil prices could significantly affect emerging economies, especially those more dependent on energy imports.

Despite this outlook, the region retains some strengths. Its abundance of natural resources, potential in clean energy, and proximity to large markets such as the United States offer medium-term opportunities. However, capitalizing on these advantages requires structural reforms that remain pending in most countries.

Within this framework, Colombia is no exception, but part of a broader trend. The economy is growing, but without enough momentum to transform its productive structure. The challenge, both for the country and the region, will be to break out of this low-growth equilibrium in an international environment that, for now, offers few tailwinds.