Latin America, in light of the analyses of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), completes four consecutive years with growth rates close to 2,3%, evidencing a pattern of low capacity to grow, and Colombia is not the exception, since it projects a growth of 2,5% for 2026, which represents a downward revision of 0,2 percentage points compared to its previous estimate of 2,7%.
Both in the region and in Colombia, the performance would be conditioned by a lower impulse of consumption and a more demanding external environment. ECLAC detected that factors such as restrictive financial conditions, exchange rate volatility and the increase in the cost of imported inputs would continue to put pressure on economic activity, in a context in which investment shows signs of recovery, but still insufficient to drive a more solid growth.
In general, the regional economic commission of the United Nations points out that the deterioration of the external scenario is one of the key factors behind the downward adjustment in regional growth projections. In the first months of the year, the increase of geopolitical tensions and the conflict in the Middle East have increased global uncertainty and volatility in financial and commodity markets.
This is how the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow
According to the update of projections made by ECLAC, the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean would grow on average 2,2% in 2026, which means a slight downward revision compared to the 2,3% estimated in December of 2025. This result reflects a more complex external environment than anticipated at the end of last year, characterized by greater geopolitical tensions, restrictive financial conditions and the resurgence of inflationary pressures at the global level.
According to ECLAC, the lower projected dynamism is observed in a generalized manner. In 24 of the 33 countries of the region growth would decelerate in 2026, while only seven would show an acceleration. And in all this an important role is played by the average price of oil that in the first three weeks of April stood 74% above the average value of December of 2025, generating global inflationary pressures and increasing production and transport costs.
To this is added the increase of food prices at the global level, and a deceleration of the growth of some of the main trading partners of the region, such as the Eurozone, China and India, as well as a lower dynamism of international trade. For 2026 the World Trade Organization (WTO) projects a growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services of 2,7%, after having grown 4,7% during 2025.
Employment will also be affected
In this context of higher inflation and reduction of growth prospects, the main central banks have adopted more cautious positions, maintaining less favorable financial conditions compared to those that were expected at the end of last year.
At the regional level, growth would be limited mainly by a lower dynamism of private consumption. Although investment shows signs of recovery, it continues to be moderate in most countries. During the second half of 2025 a deceleration of economic activity had already been observed, especially in the main economies of the region, a trend that has extended into 2026.
There are, in addition, some additional data from ECLAC that draw attention. For example, in line with the lower dynamism of activity, employment in the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean would also show a moderate expansion, with an estimated growth around 1,1% in 2026, after the 1,5% observed in 2025.
For its part, the effects of global inflationary pressures would induce an increase of inflation in the region, placing the median at levels above 3% during 2026, which contrasts with the 2,4% observed in 2025. This situation is especially relevant in the economies of South America, where pressures associated with exchange rate volatility and the impact of the increase in the costs of imported inputs and transport persist.