The world was once again left on edge this Monday after President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire situation between the United States and Iran is in “life support condition.” The president thus rejected Tehran’s response to the most recent U.S. peace proposal. All countries, including the most powerful, are feeling the consequences of this conflict whose main stage is the Strait of Hormuz, and Colombia is no exception.
The most serious aspect is that Trump’s statements from the Oval Office continue along that line of insults that do not help resolve the conflict, and that is what most concerns the international community.
When asked about the future of the ceasefire, Trump said: “I would say it is the weakest right now, after reading that piece of trash they sent us. I did not even finish reading it.” According to the president, the Iranians “do not mention in their letter that they will not seek to obtain nuclear weapons,” which for the United States is a red line.
How the Strait of Hormuz crisis affects Colombian companies
These political tensions have found in the Strait of Hormuz the mouth or crater through which the volcano threatening to erupt is manifesting itself. That is why what may happen in this important maritime corridor for the transport of hydrocarbons and fertilizers continues to attract the attention of the entire world. Its closure or partial disruption could generate pressure on costs, inflation, and supply chains in countries such as Colombia.
The National Foreign Trade Association (Analdex) cited figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), according to which 38% of global maritime crude oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as 29% of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 19% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined products.
For this reason, according to Analdex, the conflict has begun to reshape various global logistics chains, especially in sensitive products such as oil, gas, and fertilizers.
The executive president of Analdex, Javier Diaz Molina, cited by Semana, said that the economic impact will depend on how long the conflict lasts and how affected the international supply of raw materials becomes.
“This shock is transmitted through three critical channels for Colombian companies: first, a supply shock due to the rise in raw materials that increases costs and erodes purchasing power; second, the risk of price-wage increases that worsen inflation; and third, a tightening of global financial conditions,” he said.
Colombia will also not escape the diagnosis presented in the most recent World Bank report on commodity market outlooks, which forecasts that this year, due to the conflict in the Middle East, energy prices will rise 24%, reaching their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Overall, it estimates that commodity prices will increase by 16%, driven by the rapid growth in energy and fertilizer prices, and by the historic highs reached by several key metals, a situation that will affect job creation and development.
Since the Strait of Hormuz is key to the logistics of hydrocarbons and other inputs, attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to maritime transport in that area have triggered the largest oil supply crisis on record, with an initial reduction in global supply of around 10 million barrels per day, according to this multilateral organization.