Just 15 days before the May 31 presidential first round, polls in Colombia continue to paint an uncertain political landscape, marked by uncertainty over who will join ruling-party candidate Ivan Cepeda in the runoff scheduled for June 21.
Polls agree that no candidate would reach the threshold needed to win outright in the first round, leaving an intense battle for second place among right-wing sectors wide open.
The presidential race is thus entering a decisive phase. While Cepeda appears to have consolidated a significant lead over the other candidates, the contest between Paloma Valencia and Abelardo De la Espriella has become the central focus of the campaign.
Both are seeking to capitalize on opposition votes against the Government and position themselves as the main alternative to the ruling coalition in a potential runoff.
Polls show uncertainty ahead of Colombia’s presidential runoff
The most recent poll, conducted by Genesis Crea Fundation between May 4 and 11, shows Senator Ivan Cepeda leading with 35.1% of voting intentions. Although the figure keeps him clearly ahead of his rivals, it also confirms that he remains far from the 50% plus one required to avoid a second round.
The result reinforces the perception that the ruling coalition retains a solid electoral base despite the wear and tear the Government faces in different sectors. Cepeda has focused his campaign on defending the social reforms promoted in recent years and on the promise of deepening the political model advanced by President Petro’s current administration.
His strategy has also sought to consolidate progressive and left-wing voters, appealing to urban sectors, young people, and social organizations that believe the Government’s political project has not yet completed its structural transformations. In several regions of the country, the ruling coalition also maintains political machinery and electoral structures that allow it to sustain significant levels of support.
However, even within the ruling coalition — though not publicly — there is recognition that the real challenge will begin in the second round, where the election could turn into a plebiscite on whether to continue or reject the current political project.
The greatest uncertainty is now concentrated in the battle for second place. According to the Genesis Crea Fundation poll, Senator Paloma Valencia stands at 25.4% of voting intentions, while attorney Abelardo De la Espriella records 21.6%.
The gap between the two candidates is relatively narrow and leaves open the possibility of changes during the next two weeks of campaigning. In that scenario, every debate, public appearance, or political mistake could prove decisive in determining who advances to the runoff.
Paloma Valencia has sought to establish herself as the opposition candidate with the strongest political structure. Her message has focused on security issues, institutional strengthening, and direct criticism of the Government’s handling of the economy and public order. She has also tried to unite traditional right-wing and Uribista sectors that see her as a figure with legislative experience and the ability to confront the ruling coalition.
For his part, Abelardo De la Espriella has run a far more confrontational campaign, based on an anti-establishment message and strong opposition to the Government. The attorney has drawn media attention with statements targeting traditional political elites and with proposals centered on authority, security, and a hard-line fight against criminal groups.
The competition between the two also reflects fragmentation within the conservative and right-wing electorate. While some sectors prefer a candidate with political experience and party backing, others lean toward more disruptive figures removed from traditional structures.
Dos encuestas dos resultados diferentes: Fundación Génesis Crea y Atlasintel.
El 31 de mayo sabemos cuál acertó. pic.twitter.com/B6tHb4QLXr
— Miguel Cardoza Cadenas (@MiguelCardoza) May 15, 2026
A three-way race in which the remaining candidates are losing relevance
The poll also highlights the lagging position of other presidential hopefuls who, at least for now, appear outside the real contest for power. Centrist Claudia Lopez registers 3.6% voting intention, while fellow centrist Sergio Fajardo reaches 2.9%. Meanwhile, right-wing candidate Miguel Uribe Londoño — father of the murdered Miguel Uribe Turbay — appears with just 0.8%.
The numbers show the difficulty centrist candidacies have faced in establishing a competitive space in an election increasingly polarized between the ruling coalition and the right-wing opposition. Political analysts believe much of the moderate electorate has ended up being absorbed by candidates with the strongest real chances of reaching the runoff.
In Claudia Lopez’s case, her campaign has failed to recover the political momentum she enjoyed years ago, while Sergio Fajardo — who in 2026 is making his third attempt to reach Colombia’s presidency — is once again struggling to connect with an electorate demanding more clearly defined positions amid the country’s political polarization.
The situation also reflects a growing trend in Latin America, where electoral scenarios are increasingly reduced to disputes between opposing ideological projects, leaving little room for centrist options.
All polls point to a runoff
Beyond the methodological differences among the various polls released in recent weeks, there is a broad consensus: Colombia will have a presidential runoff. No poll currently projects any candidate surpassing 50% of the vote on May 31.
That scenario turns the battle for second place into the real political fight of the moment. Both Paloma Valencia and Abelardo De la Espriella know that reaching the runoff could completely redefine the electoral dynamics and open the door to new political alliances ahead of June.
The coming days will be marked by intense campaigning, debates, and efforts to attract undecided voters, who could ultimately tip the balance. Cross-attacks between opposition campaigns are also expected to intensify, as both sides recognize that any move could prove decisive.
Meanwhile, Ivan Cepeda is watching a campaign in which, for now, he maintains the lead, but without absolute guarantees of victory in the second round — something that seemed clearer a few months ago. The first round increasingly appears to be a qualifying stage for a final confrontation that will define the country’s political direction for the coming years.