Nine days before Colombia’s May 31 presidential elections, the last two major polls authorized before the statistical blackout painted an open and contradiction-filled panorama. The Invamer and Guarumo surveys, published Thursday, May 21, agree that ruling-party candidate Ivan Cepeda clearly leads voter intention for the first round, but they completely diverge on what would happen in a potential June 21 runoff.
Colombian law prohibits the publication of polls during the final week before the elections, making these the last studies able to influence public debate before citizens head to the polls, coinciding with the end of political campaigns this coming weekend.
The measurements also reflect a realignment within the Colombian right: while Abelardo De la Espriella is consolidating rapid growth and establishing himself as Cepeda’s main rival, Paloma Valencia is losing strength and falls to third place in both polls, outside any second-round scenario.
Latest Colombia polls offer conflicting predictions on runoff winner
The Invamer poll presents the most favorable scenario for the ruling coalition. According to the study, Ivan Cepeda reaches 44.6% voting intention in the first round, well ahead of Abelardo De la Espriella, who stands at 31.6%, while Paloma Valencia appears in third with just 14%.
The political snapshot left by Invamer shows very strong growth for De la Espriella over the past month, but also a collapse for Valencia, who weeks earlier appeared as the figure with the best chances of challenging for leadership of the right. The study indicates that the Democratic Center senator fell by around five percentage points compared to previous measurements, losing momentum precisely in the final stretch of the campaign.
The poll’s most important finding, however, appears in the runoff simulation. There, Invamer concludes that Cepeda would defeat both De la Espriella and Valencia. Against the lawyer and far-right candidate, Cepeda would obtain 52.4% of the vote against De la Espriella’s 45.3%, while against the uribista leader, continuity would reach 52.8% compared to 44.3%.
The study, released by local outlets Caracol TV and Blu Radio, was conducted with 3,800 surveys and has a margin of error close to 2.4%. The political reading it leaves is clear: the ruling coalition has managed to remain united around Cepeda and retains the ability to expand its electoral base in a potential second round, even against right-wing candidates.
Guarumo paints a completely different scenario
The Guarumo and EcoAnalitica poll agrees that Ivan Cepeda would win the first round, although with lower figures than those of Invamer. According to this study, the Historic Pact candidate obtains 37.1% voting intention, followed by Abelardo De la Espriella with 27.5% and Paloma Valencia with 21.7%.
Although Valencia appears closer to De la Espriella in this measurement, she also remains outside the runoff and loses ground compared to previous months. The poll shows that the most consistent growth within the right belongs to De la Espriella, who has become the candidate with the greatest electoral expansion capacity in the final stretch of the campaign.
But the major difference compared to Invamer appears when Guarumo asks about a potential runoff. There, the study concludes that Cepeda would lose against Abelardo De la Espriella. The far-right candidate would reach 43.6% compared to 40% for the ruling-party senator.
The survey even suggests that Paloma Valencia would also defeat Cepeda in a head-to-head scenario, although that outcome appears less likely because the senator fails to reach the second round in first-round voting intention. In another relevant finding, Guarumo indicates that De la Espriella would also defeat Valencia if both contested a runoff between right-wing candidates.
The poll was conducted between May 11 and May 19 in 85 municipalities across the country, with 3,787 people surveyed and a margin of error of 2.2%.
The decline of Paloma Valencia
Although the two polls present important differences regarding the final outcome of the elections, both agree on one central point: Paloma Valencia is no longer seen as the main alternative for the Colombian right.
For much of the campaign, the Democratic Center leader appeared to be competing for opposition leadership, and in some polls she even showed competitive chances for a second round. However, both Invamer and Guarumo reflect a sustained loss of support in recent weeks.
In Invamer, the drop is especially sharp. Valencia falls to 14% and appears far behind De la Espriella, who practically doubles her voting intention. In Guarumo, the gap is smaller, but still insufficient to displace the Barranquilla lawyer from second place.
The result consolidates a shift within the conservative and right-wing electorate. De la Espriella’s campaign, based on a tough-on-security message, confrontation against the ruling coalition, and a strong media presence, ended up absorbing much of the opposition vote that had initially been divided among several candidates.
Even so, the scenario remains divided and undecided voters could, as happened in 2022, determine the final outcome, especially in the second vote scheduled for June 21.
What does appear consolidated is the polarization between the left-wing ruling coalition and a right increasingly concentrated around De la Espriella’s formal radicalization. And also the weakening of Paloma Valencia, who goes from being considered a key figure of uribismo to being left outside any decisive scenario in the final stretch of the presidential campaign.