With less than a week before the Colombia election, a portion of Paloma Valencia voters may migrate toward Abelardo de la Espriella. The country’s presidential race has entered its most volatile phase yet. While left-wing candidate Ivan Cepeda continues to lead most first-round polls, analysts and campaign insiders are increasingly focused on a different phenomenon: The possibility that Paloma Valencia loses voters to Abelardo de la Espriella in an effort to block the Colombian left from retaining power.
The emerging trend is reshaping the final days of the campaign and could determine who advances to the decisive runoff election scheduled for June 21.
Recent polling has shown Cepeda, the candidate aligned with President Gustavo Petro and the ruling coalition, maintaining a solid lead in the first round. However, surveys also suggest that both De la Espriella and Valencia would defeat Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff, revealing a broad anti-government vote that remains fragmented in the first round.
That fragmentation has become the central strategic debate among conservative voters during the final week of campaigning.
Colombia election: A portion of Paloma Valencia voters may migrate toward Abelardo de la Espriella
In Colombia’s polarized political climate, many right-wing voters increasingly appear willing to prioritize electability over ideological purity. The concept of “voto util,” or useful voting, has rapidly gained traction on social media, political talk shows, and campaign circles.
The argument is straightforward: If conservative voters remain divided between Valencia and De la Espriella, Cepeda could comfortably secure first place and enter the runoff with momentum. But if anti-left voters consolidate behind one candidate — particularly the one polling strongest against Cepeda — the balance of power could shift dramatically.
At the moment, De la Espriella appears to be the principal beneficiary of that logic.
A recent AtlasIntel poll placed Cepeda at 38.7% and De la Espriella close behind at 37.3%, while Valencia trailed with 14.3%. The same survey projected De la Espriella defeating Cepeda in a second round by nearly nine points.
Other polls published by Centro Nacional de Consultoria, or CNC, and Guarumo have shown similar trends, consistently placing Valencia in third place while indicating that both conservative candidates outperform Cepeda in runoff scenarios.
That statistical reality is fueling speculation that some Valencia supporters could shift tactically toward De la Espriella before election day.
Paloma Valencia’s conservative base faces a dilemma
Valencia, a senator associated with the conservative wing of the Democratic Center, built her campaign around institutional conservatism, tax reduction proposals, and strong security policies. Her supporters include many traditional Uribista voters and middle-to-upper-class conservatives wary of Petro’s reforms.
But as election day approaches, some members of that electorate are openly debating whether staying loyal to Valencia could inadvertently help Cepeda.
Political analysts say the fear of a continued left-wing administration is becoming a stronger motivator than ideological differences within the right itself.
De la Espriella, a lawyer and media personality known for his confrontational rhetoric and hardline security discourse, has successfully positioned himself as the candidate with the greatest momentum. His campaign has leaned heavily on anti-Petro sentiment, promising aggressive action against armed groups, deregulation, and closer ties with the United States and private investors.
That message appears to resonate with undecided conservatives seeking the strongest possible counterweight to the ruling coalition.
Anti-Petro sentiment dominates the campaign
The final week of the race is increasingly defined less by policy proposals and more by emotional mobilization against or in favor of the Petro era.
For Cepeda, the challenge is expanding beyond the loyal left-wing base that propelled Petro into power in 2022. While he continues to benefit from strong support among progressive voters and younger urban sectors, his high rejection numbers remain a significant obstacle in runoff scenarios.
Meanwhile, opposition candidates have focused their messaging on public insecurity, inflation concerns, and fears about Colombia’s economic direction under continued leftist leadership. The result is a campaign environment marked by intense polarization and strategic calculations.
Even online political communities and grassroots discussions increasingly revolve around electability rather than ideology. Online fora and political discussion groups have repeatedly highlighted the possibility that opposition voters may eventually coalesce around whichever right-wing candidate appears best positioned to stop Cepeda.
A defining week for Colombia’s political future
The coming days may ultimately determine whether Colombia’s conservative electorate remains divided or consolidates around a single anti-left figure.
If Valencia retains enough support, the right-wing vote could split and allow Cepeda to dominate the first round. But if strategic voting accelerates in favor of De la Espriella, Colombia could witness one of the most dramatic late-stage electoral shifts in recent political history.
For now, uncertainty remains the defining characteristic of the race.
What is increasingly clear, however, is that Colombia’s election is no longer simply a contest between left and right. It has become a battle over strategy, fear, momentum, and the question of which opposition figure voters believe has the best chance of keeping the left out of Casa de Nariño.