As Colombia heads into one of the most polarized presidential elections in recent history, the campaign of Paloma Valencia appears to be losing momentum at a critical moment.
What began as a strong bid to unite the traditional right behind the candidate of the Democratic Center has gradually turned into a campaign struggling to expand beyond its core base, creating an opening for both Abelardo De la Espriella and Ivan Cepeda to strengthen their chances of reaching a second-round runoff.
Recent polling and political analysis (Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, and Guarumo) suggest that Colombia’s 2026 election has evolved into a three-way race dominated by Cepeda, De la Espriella, and Valencia, with the latter increasingly falling behind her main conservative rival.
The Uribe factor: strength and weakness
Paloma Valencia’s campaign loses momentum as one of her greatest assets has also become one of her biggest liabilities.
The senator built her national profile as one of the most loyal political allies of former President Alvaro Uribe. Throughout her campaign, she has embraced the Uribista legacy and repeatedly positioned herself as the natural heir to the Democratic Center movement.
According to reporting by El Pais, Valencia has even suggested that Uribe could play a major role in a future administration, including discussions about a possible position in government.
While that strategy energizes the party’s traditional supporters, it has also limited her appeal among independent voters. Many Colombians dissatisfied with President Gustavo Petro are seeking an alternative, but not necessarily a return to the political dynamics of the Uribe era.
Political analysts have argued that Valencia’s close identification with Uribe makes it harder for her to present herself as a fresh option in a country where anti-establishment sentiment remains strong. That dynamic has benefited De la Espriella, who has successfully marketed himself as an outsider despite sharing many right-wing positions with Valencia.
Failure to capture the anti-Petro vote
Perhaps the most significant strategic mistake has been Valencia’s inability to consolidate opposition voters.
Security concerns, rising violence, and dissatisfaction with Petro’s administration have created favorable conditions for conservative candidates. However, much of that frustration has flowed toward De la Espriella rather than Valencia. Reuters reported that the lawyer and businessman has surged in recent polls by presenting himself as a strongman figure focused on crime, mega-prisons, and an aggressive security agenda.
Unlike Valencia, De la Espriella has built a campaign around political disruption. His rhetoric, media presence, and outsider image have resonated with voters seeking a more confrontational response to Colombia’s security crisis. As violence increasingly dominates the national conversation, many conservative voters appear to view him as the candidate better positioned to challenge the status quo.
The result is a fragmented right-wing electorate that has weakened Valencia’s path to the runoff.
Paloma Valencia’s campaign loses momentum: messaging errors and contradictions
Valencia has also faced criticism over several campaign decisions that complicated her efforts to broaden her coalition.
One example was her choice of vice-presidential running mate, Juan Daniel Oviedo. While the selection was praised by centrist sectors and demonstrated an attempt to modernize the Democratic Center’s image, it reportedly generated tensions among more conservative voters within her political base.
At the same time, Valencia has occasionally struggled to maintain message discipline. El Pais noted that her effort to appear authentic and spontaneous has sometimes produced political missteps that distracted from her central campaign themes.
These contradictions have made it difficult for her campaign to clearly define whether it represents a traditional conservative project, a modern center-right alternative, or a continuation of Uribismo.
How Ivan Cepeda has benefited
While conservative voters remain divided, Cepeda has largely succeeded in consolidating the left.
The senator has positioned himself as the candidate of continuity for Petro’s progressive movement while presenting a more measured and institutional image than the outgoing president. His campaign has focused on ethics, social reform, and peace-building, allowing him to maintain a stable base while his opponents compete for the same right-wing electorate.
Several analyses now place Cepeda at or near the top of voter intention surveys, making him the most likely candidate to advance to a second round.
The more Valencia and De la Espriella divide opposition voters, the easier it becomes for Cepeda to maintain his advantage.
A race that increasingly favors De la Espriella and Cepeda
The final days of the campaign have highlighted a growing political reality: The contest is no longer simply about who can defeat Cepeda. It is also about who can emerge as the dominant alternative on the right.
Polling trends, prediction markets, and political commentary increasingly suggest that De la Espriella has overtaken Valencia as the principal challenger to the left-wing frontrunner.
For Valencia, the challenge is no longer just expanding her coalition. It is preventing further erosion of support among conservative voters who increasingly see De la Espriella as the candidate with greater momentum and a stronger chance of reaching the runoff.
Unless her campaign can quickly reconnect with undecided voters and reassert itself as the leading force on the center-right, Colombia’s 2026 presidential election may ultimately become a second-round battle between Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella — a scenario that seemed far less likely only a few months ago.