As the United Nations (UN) approaches a pivotal transition, diplomatic attention is increasingly focused on who will succeed António Guterres as secretary-general when his second term ends on Dec. 31, 2026. The question is not merely about leadership succession but about the future relevance of multilateralism itself at a moment of profound global instability. Who will succeed António Guterres as U.N. secretary-general?
Wars in Europe and the Middle East, deepening climate emergencies, rising inequality, and a growing skepticism toward international institutions have placed the U.N. under extraordinary pressure. The choice of the next secretary-general will signal how the organization intends to navigate an era marked by geopolitical fragmentation and declining trust in global governance.
António Guterres and his legacy at the United Nations
António Guterres took office in January 2017 with a reputation as a pragmatic humanitarian and consensus builder. Before becoming secretary-general, he served as prime minister of Portugal and later as U.N. high commissioner for refugees, where he earned recognition for managing some of the world’s largest displacement crises.
His tenure has coincided with a succession of global shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic tested the U.N.’s coordinating capacity across health, development, and humanitarian response, exposing structural inequalities while reaffirming the organization’s convening power. Guterres consistently framed the pandemic as a moral and political stress test for international solidarity.
Climate change emerged as a defining pillar of his leadership. Departing from the traditionally restrained tone of U.N. secretaries-general, Guterres adopted an unusually blunt rhetoric, warning of “code red for humanity” and pressing governments and corporations to accelerate decarbonization. His push to reform internal U.N. structures, improve coordination across agencies, and modernize peace operations reflected an effort to adapt the institution to 21st-century realities.
Despite these efforts, Guterres has also faced criticism. Structural paralysis within the Security Council, particularly amid vetoes by permanent members, has limited the U.N.’s effectiveness in preventing or ending major conflicts. Still, supporters argue that his greatest contribution has been preserving the U.N.’s moral authority and visibility in a world increasingly hostile to collective action.
How the UN selects its next secretary-general
The selection of a U.N. secretary-general follows a formal yet deeply political process. Candidates are nominated by member states, after which the U.N. Security Council conducts a series of informal consultations and straw polls. The Council then recommends a single candidate to the General Assembly, which formally appoints the secretary-general.
In practice, this means that any successful candidate must avoid a veto from one of the five permanent members of the Security Council: the United States, China, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom. While no official list of qualifications exists, expectations are well established. Candidates are typically senior political or diplomatic figures with global credibility, extensive leadership experience, and the ability to mediate among rival powers.
The upcoming selection is unfolding amid growing demands for transparency, gender equality, and geographic balance. These pressures have reshaped expectations around the profile of the next secretary-general, with many governments calling for a leader capable of restoring trust in multilateral institutions while managing an increasingly polarized international system.
Confirmed and potential nominees with strong credentials
At present, Rafael Grossi is the only officially nominated candidate. As director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi has built a reputation as a steady crisis manager in one of the most sensitive areas of global security.
His leadership has placed him at the center of nuclear diplomacy involving Iran and Ukraine, giving him unparalleled exposure to high-stakes negotiations. Grossi’s supporters emphasize his technical expertise and diplomatic discipline, though some question whether his background offers the broader political reach traditionally associated with the secretary-general role.
Beyond Grossi, several figures are widely regarded as credible contenders, even in the absence of formal nominations.
Michelle Bachelet, former president of Chile and former U.N. high commissioner for human rights, is among the most frequently mentioned names. Her combination of executive political leadership and deep U.N. experience gives her rare institutional versatility. Bachelet’s tenure at the U.N. elevated human rights and gender equality, while her presidential record underscores her ability to govern in polarized environments.
Rebeca Grynspan, currently secretary-general of UNCTAD, brings a development-focused lens to the race. A former vice president of Costa Rica and a respected economist, Grynspan has centered her U.N. work on debt relief, global inequality, and sustainable development financing. Diplomats often describe her as a pragmatic bridge-builder with strong credibility among developing nations.
Alicia Barcena, Mexico’s former foreign minister and a veteran U.N. official, has decades of experience within the organization. As former head of the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, she emerged as a prominent advocate for climate action and inclusive growth. Her candidacy would reflect continuity with the U.N.’s expanding environmental and development agenda.
Another potential candidate is Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former president of the U.N. General Assembly and former foreign minister of Ecuador. Her familiarity with U.N. procedures and diplomacy gives her strong institutional credibility, particularly among member states seeking a secretary-general deeply versed in multilateral governance.
Outside Latin America, Amina Mohammed, the current U.N. deputy secretary-general, is also viewed as a possible contender. Her leadership on sustainable development and her close alignment with Guterres’ reform agenda position her as a candidate of continuity, though some member states may seek a sharper departure from the current leadership style.
Speculation has also included Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados, whose global standing has risen due to her advocacy on climate finance and debt restructuring for vulnerable countries. While her candidacy remains unofficial, her moral clarity and international visibility have earned widespread respect.
Will the UN finally appoint a woman secretary-general?
The 2026 selection carries historic significance. In nearly 80 years, the United Nations has never been led by a woman. This absence has become increasingly difficult to justify in an organization that champions gender equality and inclusive leadership.
Both Bachelet and Grynspan are frequently cited as candidates capable of breaking this historical pattern. Their leadership would not only mark a symbolic shift but also reflect broader demands for representation and legitimacy within the multilateral system. Whether the Security Council will ultimately support such a transition remains one of the defining questions of the race.
The selection timeline and the role of interactive dialogues
The formal nomination process is expected to intensify throughout 2025, with candidates submitting vision statements and participating in informal consultations. A central feature of the modern selection process is the use of interactive dialogues, public sessions where candidates present their priorities and respond to questions from member states.
While these dialogues are not binding, they play a crucial role in shaping diplomatic perceptions and building momentum. They offer rare insight into a candidate’s leadership style, policy priorities, and ability to communicate a compelling vision for the U.N.’s future.
The Security Council is expected to finalize its recommendation by mid-2026, followed by approval from the General Assembly. The new secretary-general will assume office on Jan. 1, 2027.
The mission and challenges facing the next Secretary-General
The next secretary-general will inherit an organization facing profound tests. Armed conflicts, climate emergencies, humanitarian crises, and institutional fatigue have strained the U.N.’s capacity. At the same time, demands for reform, particularly of the Security Council, are growing louder.
Beyond administrative leadership, the secretary-general is expected to serve as the U.N.’s moral voice and chief diplomat, mediating conflicts and mobilizing global cooperation. The success of the next leader will depend not only on diplomatic skill but on the ability to restore confidence in multilateralism itself.
The succession of António Guterres will ultimately be a measure of whether the United Nations can adapt to a fractured world or whether it will continue to struggle under the weight of its own limitations.