A new genetic study suggests that most European Neanderthals who lived in Europe during their final period may have originated from a single ancestral population, reshaping current understanding of their population history. The research indicates that this dominant group likely emerged in southwestern France around 65,000 years ago before spreading across the continent.
The study was led by Charoula M. Fotiadou of the University of Tübingen in Germany and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Scientists analyzed mitochondrial DNA from 10 Neanderthal remains discovered at sites across Belgium, France, Germany, and Serbia. These samples were compared with 49 previously published genetic sequences to reconstruct population patterns over time.
Evidence of a single expanding lineage
The findings show that nearly all Late Neanderthals in Europe belonged to a closely related maternal lineage. This suggests a major genetic turnover, where earlier populations declined, and one group became widespread across the region.
Researchers estimate that this lineage began to diversify around 65,000 years ago. Evidence points to southwestern France as a likely origin, where a small population may have survived during a period of harsh climate conditions. As the environment improved, this group appears to have expanded across much of Europe.
Archaeological records support this theory. Neanderthal presence appears to have decreased significantly around 80,000 years ago, with fewer sites identified across Europe. However, southern France remained a key area of activity between 70,000 and 60,000 years ago, suggesting it served as a refuge during difficult conditions.
Climate pressures and genetic decline
The study links these population shifts to climate changes during the last Ice Age. Cold and dry conditions likely forced Neanderthal groups into isolated regions, reducing their numbers. One of these groups later expanded and became dominant.
Genetic data also reveal a steady decline in diversity among later Neanderthals. Earlier populations in Europe and the Altai region showed greater variation, while later groups from Spain to the Caucasus were much more similar. This pattern points to a population bottleneck, where numbers dropped sharply.
Researchers identified a significant reduction in maternal genetic diversity beginning about 45,000 years ago, reaching its lowest point around 42,000 years ago—shortly before Neanderthals disappeared.
While the study provides strong evidence of a population shift, it is based on mitochondrial DNA, which traces only maternal ancestry. Scientists note that further analysis of nuclear DNA will be needed to confirm how widespread this replacement was.
Even so, the findings offer a clearer picture of Neanderthals’ final phase, shaped by environmental pressure, reduced diversity and expansion from a single surviving population.