Italy’s Population Stops Shrinking, but Birth Rate Keeps Falling

Written on 04/03/2026
Abdul Moeed

Italian flag (Rome, Italy). Credit: Liz Castro / Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Italy’s population stabilized in 2025 after years of decline, but the shift did not come from a baby boom or a drop in deaths. New provisional data show that migration from abroad was the main force that kept the country’s total population nearly unchanged.

Italy had 58.943 million residents on Jan. 1, 2026, almost the same as a year earlier. The pause in population decline marks an important moment for a country that has faced a long stretch of low birth rates, rising deaths and a steadily aging society.

The numbers released by ISTAT, Italy’s national statistics agency, show that the country still recorded far more deaths than births during the year. Births fell to 355,000 in 2025, down 3.9% from the previous year. Deaths remained broadly steady at 652,000. That left a natural population loss of about 296,000 people, a deeper gap than the one recorded in 2024.

Migration offsets Italy’s natural population decline

That deficit was almost entirely balanced by strong international migration. Italy recorded 440,000 arrivals from abroad and 144,000 departures to other countries. The result was net migration of 296,000, enough to offset nearly all of the country’s natural decrease.

The trend, however, was not evenly spread across the country. Northern Italy posted population gains, central regions were mostly stable, and southern Italy, including the Mezzogiorno, continued to lose residents. The largest increases were seen in Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia. The steepest declines were recorded in Basilicata, Molise and Sardegna.

The foreign resident population rose to 5.56 million at the start of 2026, an increase of 188,000 from a year earlier. At the same time, the number of Italian residents dropped by 189,000 to 53.383 million. Foreign residents now account for 9.4% of the total population.

Low fertility and aging remain central concerns

Despite the temporary population stability, the broader demographic picture remains difficult. Italy’s fertility rate fell again to 1.14 children per woman in 2025, compared with 1.18 in 2024. The average age of mothers at childbirth also increased to 32.7 years.

Life expectancy continued to improve, reaching 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women, among the highest levels in Europe. The figures also reflected changing family patterns. Single-person households remained the most common, while couples with children made up 28.4% of households and couples without children accounted for 20.2%.

Internal migration also increased, with moves between municipalities rising 5.1% to 1.455 million. The north remained the main destination. The latest data suggest migration is now the key factor holding Italy’s population steady, even as low fertility, regional imbalance and aging continue to shape the country’s future.