On the eve of COP30, which will be held in Brazil, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres delivered one of the harshest warnings since the creation of the Paris Agreement. “The planet has failed in its attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” he declared before an audience of heads of state, ministers, and representatives of international organizations.
His statement, made during the meeting of world leaders that precedes the climate summit, constitutes a grave warning about the course of the climate crisis and a public denunciation that humanity has not fulfilled the promise it made nearly a decade ago.
Guterres described the failure as a “moral failure and deadly negligence,” reminding that the 1.5-degree target was not a political goal but a line of defense to prevent the most devastating impacts of climate change. He explained that scientific data confirm that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and that the pace of reduction needed to keep the Paris goal alive is no longer achievable with current commitments. In this regard, even if countries were to meet their national plans, the planet is heading toward a temperature increase of more than two degrees by the end of the century.
To all this, the top United Nations representative denounced before a group of world leaders the inaction and lack of real commitment of many countries on this issue.
UN denounces failure to limit global warming at COP30
The secretary-general’s message was supported by recent reports from the World Meteorological Organization, which predict that the period between 2023 and 2025 will be the warmest on record. That trend, Guterres warned, means that humanity is already experiencing the effects of surpassing the safety threshold: more intense wildfires, off-season hurricanes, prolonged droughts, and rising sea levels that threaten the very existence of small island states.
“Every fraction of a degree we gain means more hunger, more displacement, and more suffering, especially for those who have contributed the least to this disaster,” he said.
The failure to reach the 1.5-degree target does not stem from a single cause but from a combination of political, economic, and structural factors. Guterres pointed out that industrialized countries, historically responsible for most emissions, have failed to deliver on their climate financing promises to the developing world.
The resources pledged for adaptation and mitigation have not arrived in the magnitude or at the speed required, leaving the most vulnerable economies trapped in a cycle of dependence on fossil fuels. At the same time, the influence of major energy corporations—still receiving subsidies worth more than US$1 trillion annually—continues to hinder the transition toward renewable sources.
The secretary-general also lamented the lack of leadership and the erosion of multilateralism. In his view, the spirit of cooperation that made it possible to sign the Paris Agreement in 2015 has weakened, replaced by a logic of national interests and an increasingly fragmented international climate
“We are in a race against time, but we are running in opposite directions,” he warned, urging governments to make the upcoming summit in Belém a real turning point and not just another round of empty speeches.
The denunciation at the COP30 forum, in the heart of the Amazon
The choice of Brazil as the host of COP30 is no coincidence. The Amazon, considered one of the planet’s lungs, symbolizes both the urgency and the hope of the current moment. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, host of the conference, has insisted that this must be “the COP of truth,” a meeting where nations move from promises to verifiable action.
His government has pledged to halt deforestation and to turn Brazil into an environmental powerhouse, though internal challenges remain enormous. For Guterres, the Amazonian setting reinforces the message: if humanity is unable to protect the world’s largest rainforest, it will hardly be able to protect itself.
Despite the harshness of his assessment, the secretary-general avoided a fatalistic tone. He acknowledged that surpassing 1.5 degrees is now inevitable but stressed that it is still possible to limit its duration and magnitude. If governments immediately accelerate the phase-out of coal, oil, and gas, drastically cut methane emissions, and multiply investments in clean energy, the excess could be temporary and reversible. “This is not about giving up, but about acting with the urgency that facts demand,” he emphasized.
The UN remains committed to the 1.5-degree target as a political and moral benchmark. However, Guterres made it clear that the time for promises is over. He called on wealthy nations to deliver the pledged climate financing and to activate the funds for loss and damage without delay.
Finally, Guterres also urged emerging economies to assume their share of responsibility, reminding that the energy transition will only be credible if it is global and equitable. “There is no climate justice if the poorest pay the price for the waste of the richest,” he stressed.
The countdown for the planet
The United Nations warning comes at a time of growing tension between scientific evidence and political paralysis. While emissions are breaking records, international negotiations remain bogged down in debates over compensation mechanisms and compliance deadlines.
As became evident at the COP16 biodiversity forum held a year ago in Colombia, despite a shared understanding of the climate emergency—with the exception of far-right denialist governments such as Donald Trump’s in the United States—there is no agreement on how to finance the energy transition and the international commitments to mitigate climate change and prevent the devastating consequences predicted by experts.
In that context, Guterres’s speech sought to break the inertia and hold a mirror up to the world’s leaders. “Failure is already here, but total catastrophe can still be avoided,” he said, appealing to the collective responsibility of states and the pressure of civil societies that, across the planet, are demanding stronger action.
In Belém, under the humid heat of the Amazon, humanity faces an uncomfortable realization: the 1.5-degree target is already behind us. What is at stake now is whether the world will be able to learn from that failure and prevent it from becoming an irreversible sentence. António Guterres summed it up in a phrase that resonated in the room and beyond: “We can choose to lead the change or be led into disaster. The decision, as always, is ours.”