Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory and his anticipated return to the White House carry significant implications for Colombia. With Trump’s radical stance on international relations and Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s agenda moving away from the United States, the coming years look challenging for the historic alliance between the two countries.
Trump’s first mandate: tense but cooperative US-Colombia relations
Despite the ideological alignment that existed between former Colombian President Ivan Duque (2018-2022) and Trump during the former’s first term in office (2017-2021), U.S.-Colombia relations remained tense over this period. Tensions centered primarily around Colombia’s relaxed stance on drug trafficking and coca eradication programs, which were largely tied to peace talks with armed groups.
Trump’s Republican administration approved the lowest level of U.S. aid to Colombia since 2018, totalling US$251.4 million. Despite challenges posed by Trump’s approach to international relations, both countries aligned on key foreign policy issues, particularly regarding Venezuela. Colombia also strengthened its ties with the U.S. by becoming NATO’s ninth global partner in May 2018 and joining the OECD in April 2020.
Trump’s return to the White House occurs in a different context. Amid multiple legal prosecutions and assassination attempts, the president-elect has become more radicalized, and promises to take an even tougher stance than in his 2017 inauguration. Meanwhile, Colombia has a new ally at the helm.
Petro and Trump: opposing poles, different agendas
Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president, has taken bold steps on the international stage since assuming office in August 2022. After severing diplomatic and trade ties with Israel, a traditional ally of both Colombia and the U.S., Petro has signaled a shift away from Washington. His administration has pursued unprecedented ties with China, expressing interest in joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative and exploring possibilities for a Free Trade Agreement. Most notably, Petro has stated that Colombia will aim to join BRICS, a multilateral organization led by China and Russia that positions itself as a counterweight to American influence.
While these political moves received little response from the Biden administration, Trump’s return will undoubtedly bring changes. With a strong anti-socialist and anti-communist stance, the president-elect may refuse to maintain a close relationship with a country perceived to be moving away from U.S. interests.
During Trump’s first presidency, there was a marked disengagement from Latin America aside from a focus on Venezuela. During those four years, Trump made only one trip to the region, attending the G-20 Summit in Argentina in 2018.
Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 will coincide with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration. Although Maduro’s election is contested, he will likely stay in power, potentially sparking a new diplomatic crisis with the U.S. Washington has recognized Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo Urratia Gonzalez as the winner of the July 2024 elections, signaling it will not acknowledge Maduro as Venezuela’s president next year.
This situation could lead to an open crisis, as Trump had taken a hardline approach against Caracas from the start of his first term, even forming a coalition of right-wing Latin American countries against Maduro, which included Colombia. Now, with much of Latin America governed by leftist administrations, this could be another source of friction.
Colombia, along with Brazil and Mexico, has emphasized the importance of dialogue, though Petro recently demanded the release of voting records for recognizing Maduro.
Colombia’s domestic policy, another sticking point
Drug policy is expected to be a key sticking point between Trump and Petro. Trump might further reduce aid to Colombia in response to soaring coca production. President Petro, meanwhile, advocates for the voluntary cessation of coca cultivation, even proposing that the Colombian government purchase crops from farmers to redirect funds away from criminal groups.
Another key issue will be illegal migration to the U.S. For several years, Colombia has been the starting point of one of the most significant migration routes to the U.S. The Darien Gap, on the border with Panama, is crossed by tens of thousands of people each month from Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, China, and other countries. Trump might try to pressure Petro on this issue, hinting at potential diplomatic clashes.
Regarding trade policy, Colombia will be closely watching Trump’s approach, especially on tariffs, as the U.S. is the country’s first trading partner.
During a recent interview with the U.S. podcaster Joe Rogan, Trump mentioned having “bad people” in his previous administration, referring to so-called “hawks” such as John Bolton. Now that Trump has triumphed in the polls and imposed his line on the entire Republican Party, the question remains: how different will a Trump administration be now compared to four years ago? We will find out soon enough.