Following the March 18 demonstration promoted by President Petro in support of his reform agenda, the stage is set: a referendum, or “Popular Consultation” is now under discussion and has begun to gain traction in social mobilization across Colombia.
Without a doubt, the presidential electoral contest has begun ahead of schedule. The first test will be the political showdown between the government and the opposition over whether Congress will approve the referendum; it would address the government’s new labor reform proposal, which seeks to expand workers’ rights, including higher wages for night shifts and weekend work, as well as modernizing contractual relationships between workers and employers under new principles of labor dignity, among other measures.
According to the Colombian Constitution, there are several mechanisms for citizen participation, including the Popular Consultation. In this case, the President will present the people with a series of questions about labor reform to determine whether they agree with it or not. For the popular consultation to take place, it must first be approved by Congress and then the public must be called to the polls.
Petro’s referendum gamble to push labor rights in Colombia
Colombia’s rights system has exhausted its ability to guarantee security, integrity, and enforcement for all citizens. We have reached the limit of what the system can provide in response to public demands. The generation of Colombians born after the 1991 constitutional reform does not fit within the framework of rights the system can effectively guarantee. Colombia has no shortage of rights on paper, but enforcing them is another matter—that’s the country’s paradox.
Modernizing the state is a necessity in terms of time, implementation, and expanding the effectiveness of rights. The world has changed, and so have citizens’ demands. After COVID-19, healthcare is now understood through new operational models that require rapid responses for patients already affected, those at risk, and even those who may be exposed in the future. Time, coverage, and effective solutions have reshaped healthcare systems worldwide.
The same applies to the labor market. The revolution in information and communication technologies has disrupted traditional production dynamics. Work has been delocalized, virtual tools have become the norm, and artificial intelligence is reshaping workflows. Remote work is increasingly modifying the way we structure time and productivity.
Now, we have work-from-home arrangements, employment outside traditional office spaces, and meetings held in cafes and restaurants equipped for remote connections across different time zones. Time flexibility and work delocalization are the new realities of the modern workforce.
Colombia is undergoing these transformations as well. It is not immune to globalization or the adjustments that contemporary societies are making. Entering the 21st century remains a challenge for the country’s conservative political system, particularly for political elites who resist not only contextual changes but also shifts in generations, rights, demands, and social prerogatives that are shaping national life.
Unfortunately, at this moment, it is difficult to engage society in a broader reflection beyond political and ideological passions. With elections looming, it’s even harder to focus on how a referendum could actually expand rights. We are now in a period of organizing power struggles, where once again, the citizen vote will be the determining factor in shaping the direction of the state heading into 2026.
A new political center in the making
The government is playing its political card by using social mobilization to pressure Congress into negotiating a new agreement on social reforms. Without a doubt, this will serve as a crucial test of the government’s remaining mobilization capacity. However, it also sets the stage for potential setbacks in its ability to negotiate effectively.
The government seems intent on replaying a political strategy that frames the debate as a polarized choice: either support the proposed reforms or oppose them. However, the political landscape is shifting in a way that could favor other sectors. Some groups, while aligned with the idea of reform, may seize this opportunity to incorporate these initiatives into their own political campaigns—potentially steering the discourse toward more moderate positions that seek national consensus.
The political field is evolving into a contest for control of the centrist space. Both supporters of former President Santos and opposition factions recognize that extreme polarization has lost credibility. They are now seeking to position themselves as the heirs of reformist politics while capitalizing on the social mobilization momentum and the continued demand for change. At the same time, they aim to contain political and social forces that have been left adrift due to the unfulfilled expectations of a political and economic transformation under the current administration.
What President Petro dismisses as the idea of a “Grand National Agreement” could very well be repurposed by other factions in the next electoral cycle—under different terms and with different leadership. A new political center is emerging from the crisis within progressivism, and the contest will take place between progressive forces and their evolving alliances with the Greens and the coalition that Santos’ political network is assembling, bringing in figures with the experience needed to navigate state governance.
The main battlegrounds will revolve around redefining the meaning of change, social reforms, and peace. A new variation of the “change” project has opened up, creating space for the political center as an alternative to what was once considered the progressive movement’s alternative.
The referendum: An early defeat for Petro?
The referendum may mark the first step in the reconfiguration of a new centrist political force—one that could ultimately put an end to the continuity of the current government’s political project. Recent history has shown that calls for referendums, plebiscites, or similar votes in Colombia rarely surpass the participation threshold; abstention has almost always won the day.
The government has set a highly ambitious—if not improbable—goal: getting 13.7 million voters to turn out for a referendum on the labor reform that Congress has already rejected.
At the end of its term, the Petro administration faces significant obstacles, both from its own challenges and from constant opposition. With an approval rating hovering around 35%, a recent unresolved cabinet crisis, and the looming risk of decertification by the United States—which could severely limit American aid for social programs, anti-narcotics efforts, and peace agreement implementation—these political headwinds make an optimistic outlook on the referendum unlikely.
Meanwhile, Colombia is experiencing an escalating wave of armed conflict, as various armed groups increase their attacks on the state.
In politics, nothing is certain until the last moment. However, all signs suggest that the political landscape is tilting toward the emergence of a new centrist movement—one that could reignite social expectations under a more moderate agenda of gradual reforms, without as much confrontation. Perhaps this will be the moment when the so-called “Grand National Agreement” resurfaces, but this time, without Petro at the helm. The future will unfold in the light of coming events.