The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast, estimating that Colombia will experience lower-than-expected growth in 2025. Growth in the country, according to the institution, is set to drop from 3% to 2.4%. However, the IMF projects a slight increase in growth in 2026, as the rate is expected to rise to 2.6%.
Global growth is also expected to decrease, as the projected GDP dropped by 0.5 points, to 2.8%, from previously estimated 3.3% growth.
The IMF says low growth in Colombia and the world is due to Trump’s trade war
Trump’s trade war, which started on Liberation Day with universal tariffs, has been the main geoeconomic subject of the year. The IMF says that the decrease in global growth could be attributed to the tariffs. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who is the economic counselor and study director at the IMF, “There have been many announcements about tariffs that have culminated in universal tariffs by the United States and its trading partners.”
He also said increased economic uncertainty is having a negative impact on economic growth all over the world. Gourinchas added, “While the level of global growth remains above recession levels, there are regions that are negatively impacted by the trade war. Trade tensions will greatly affect global trade.”
Additionally, Gourinchas said the IMF is worried about the international monetary system’s resiliency, as, according to him, to avoid a crisis, resiliency won’t be enough for it to survive.
IMF also reasses lower US growth
The IMF does not foresee a recession in the U.S. but highlights, however, that the likelihood of a recession went from 25% to 40%. Inflation in the U.S. could reach 3%, which is more than a percentage point more than what was previously estimated. On the other hand, the IMF forecast for U.S. growth dropped from 2.1% to 1.7% in 2025.
Gourinchas further explained that “For the U.S., tariffs represent a supply shock that permanently reduces productivity and output. They temporarily increase price pressures. As for the trading partners, tariffs weaken activity and prices, although some countries may benefit from the redirection of trade.”
Some of the U.S.’s top partners have also been hit by the measures imposed by the White House, as Canada and Mexico will see a drop in their growth of 1.4% and 1.6% respectively.