The first major report on the impact of the United States’ 10% import tariffs on Colombia was released. The Colombian American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham Colombia), which promotes trade between the two countries, found that Colombia may be able to benefit from some opportunities created by the new tariffs-especially since only 17.3% of its exports are significantly affected by the added costs. However, the organization argues that the tariffs should be eliminated due to the serious harm they could cause to several sectors of the economy. According to the report, exports to the U.S. could drop by 8%-equivalent to around US$1.1 billion in trade-and could result in the loss of up to 15,000 jobs by the end of 2026.
This is not an encouraging figure for a country like Colombia, where job creation and economic stability remain ongoing challenges despite recent data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), which reported that Colombia’s unemployment rate stood at 10.3% in February 2025–the lowest rate in eight years.
Some experts emphasize the fact that, although Colombia was subjected to the minimum tariff rat, which could offer a competitive advantage over other countries facing higher tariffs, concerns remain. Even a modest 10% rate represents an increase from the current 0% tariff, which had been in place under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between both nations.
Opportunities classified by category for Colombia according to AmCham
As the journalist from El Pais, Santiago Triana, aptly summarizes-based of course, on the AmCham report, 82.7% of export products will feel a limited impact and will have the opportunities to take advantage of the adjustment, and up to 40% are expected to have medium-high to high potential for consolidating and expanding Colombias’ presence in that market.
The study–based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Trade Map and White House, and Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE)–indicates that 6% of Colombian products have strong potential for consolidation in the U.S. under the new tariff scenario. This applies especially to electric materials benefitting from the steep tariffs imposed on China, the world’s leading supplier, along with textile and apparel, and sugar and confectionary products.
On the other hand, 34% of export products fall into what the report identifies as the medium-high opportunity category, indicating favorable conditions with strong potential for strategic growth. The flower and plant market stands out—Colombia leads in this sector, ahead of competitors like Ecuador and the Netherlands, both of which face a higher tariff of 16.8%. Other notable Colombian exports include coffee, aluminum, plastics, and processed vegetable and fruit products.
Despite the global economic impact triggered by Trump’s tariff announcement, the Colombian government has responded with relative calm. Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia publicly stated that the government remains committed to maintaining a cordial and constructive relationship with the United States. However, she also emphasized Colombia’s intention to diversify its trade partnerships by strengthening ties with other countries in the region, as well as in Europe and Asia.
It’s clear that the geopolitical landscape has shifted since Trump’s return to power, significantly altering global trade dynamics. More and more countries are actively seeking ways to counterbalance the hegemonic influence of the United States.
Long-term consequences of US tariffs on Colombia’s exports
Although Colombia understands the need to develop mitigation strategies and reinforce its position as a reliable partner for the U.S., maintaining the tariffs on its exports for one or two years would deal a significant blow to the country’s economy.
As the report clearly states, “in terms of economic growth, the study estimates a decline in GDP from 2.8% to 2.7% in 2025, with an accumulative loss of COP 4.7 trillion (approximately US$1.1 billion) in revenue over the first two years. Additionally, around 15,000 jobs are expected to be lost by the end of 2026 (as previously mentioned), due to reduced labor demand from exporting companies, along with 0.1% drop in private investment.”
Another key point highlighted in the study concerns the projected impact on inflation if Colombia were to respond with a 10% tariff on U.S. imports.
According to ANIF, such a move would push inflation up to 4.4% by the end of 2025, compared to the 4.2 forecast in the baseline scenario. At the same time, it would negatively affect economic growth, with GDP expected to slow 2.5%. As stated in the report, “If Colombia were to impose a generalized tariff of the same magnitude on imports from the U.S., it would trigger a shock to both the prices of imported goods and the country’s GDP.”
Under the inflation scenario just outlined, key input costs for domestic industries would be directly affected “particularly in sensitive sectors like protein production (eggs, chicken, pork, fish). This is largely because 70% of the goods imported from the U.S. are either not produced locally or not produced in sufficient quantities to meet domestic demand,” the report states.
Following the release of these findings, Maria Claudia Lacouture, President of AmCham Colombia, emphasized the need for the country to adopt a pragmatic, strategic and proactive trade plan. Such a plan, she noted, should aim to mitigate these potential impacts by strengthening sectors with comparative advantages and positioning Colombia as a reliable, agile, and competitive supplier in the U.S. Market.
As Lacouture stated, “we must seize opportunities, but eliminate risks. It is essential that the government and private sector work together to secure Colombia’s exclusion from the proposed 10% tariff, leveraging the channels provided by the existing Free Trade Agreement with the United Stated. These mechanisms offer flexibility to manage trade tensions without resorting to legal disputes. Bilateral consultation frameworks should be activated–starting informally if necessary–to raise concerns, discuss the impact of any measures taken, and explore solutions without escalating conflict.”
Colombia’s Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia stated that “the recent imposition of a base 10% tariff should be seen as an opportunity to accelerate Colombia’s internationalization strategy.”
For now, and according to some analysts, despite Colombia’s optimistic response to Trump’s tariff measures, there is consensus that the White House has yet to present a coherent narrative around what Trump intends to achieve with his tariff “war.”
In the short term, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a sharp slowdown in economic growth–particularly in the United States–as the global economy enters what the IMF describes as a “reset” of the international economic system that has been in place for the last 80 years.
The IMF also stressed that, for the time being, the level of uncertainty is extremely high and it’s not productive.