Sergio Fajardo, Ivan Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella lead Colombia’s first public poll for the 2026 Presidential election that was released after Congress’ temporary ban on publishing electoral polls ended, a new Cifras y Conceptos poll published Wednesday by Caracol Radio shows.
The Polimetrica poll, the first since the controversial restriction was lifted at the start of November, measured more than 90 potential contenders grouped into nine blocs. After respondents were filtered through those groups, Fajardo, Cepeda, and De la Espriella were identified as the small group of “pull aheads” who have pulled slightly ahead of the pack.
Each scored in a range the survey described generally as the high single digits to low teens, though the poll did not release headline figures for every candidate. “The 62% (of respondents) still have not decided who they will vote for,” Cesar Caballero, president of Cifras y Conceptos, told Caracol Radio.
The poll suggests who the front runners for the election will be …
The survey also reported detailed group results. In the left-wing bloc, Cepeda, who won the Pacto Historico consultation on Oct. 26 and is now its presidential standard-bearer, led with 24%, followed by Roy Barreras at 10%; Carlos Caicedo and Camilo Romero were at 2% each.
In the centrist group, Fajardo registered 24% and former Bogota Mayor Claudia Lopez, 13%. On the hard right, De la Espriella led his pack with 17%, while journalist Vicky Davila had 10% and ex-Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon got 6%.
Other bloc leaders included ex-Senator Juan Manuel Galan at 16% in a centrist-right grouping and Miguel Uribe Londoño at 12% in the Democratic Center faction, where the party has said it will pick a candidate by internal survey on Nov. 28.
The poll placed a second tier of “chasers,” candidates with roughly 5% to 8% support that included Lopez, Galan, Barreras, Davila, Uribe Londoño, David Luna, and former Antioquia Governor Anibal Gaviria.
Colombia’s first 2026 presidential election poll was released after a temporary ban
The poll release follows a law passed by Colombia’s Congress that temporarily banned publication of electoral opinion polls. Lawmakers framed the measure as an effort to “regulate the conduct and dissemination of polls for popularly elected positions and political opinion, to guarantee equal access to information and data transparency,” and to strengthen technical standards for polling, Senator Angelica Lozano and other backers said during the legislation’s push.
Under the new rules, publication of voter-intention polls was barred until three months before formal candidacy filings, effectively permitting publication beginning Oct. 31 and into early November.
The restriction drew sharp criticism from polling firms and election observers, who said they were not consulted and warned it would limit public information and raise the cost of research.
Alejandra Barrios, director of the Electoral Observation Mission, said the law “limits citizens’ access to complete information about the electoral process.” Polling organizations have said they are evaluating legal challenges and complained that the law’s reporting requirements and timing would drive up expenses.
Analysts say the ban, and its abrupt end, help explain the cautious tone of the first published numbers. With a long list of possible contenders and formal candidacy registration not scheduled to close until Jan. 31, 2026, many potential nominees remain in flux, and voters’ preferences are widely scattered, the poll found.
That fragmentation makes early head-to-head estimates unreliable and leaves the race open: The polling firm’s president noted that a large plurality of voters remain undecided. Campaigns and party leaders now face weeks of maneuvering and primary contests that could reshape alliances and narrow the field before Colombia’s May 2026 first round of voting.