Colombian politics is entering a decisive phase six months before the presidential elections, marked by a phenomenon that seemed unthinkable just a couple of cycles ago: The left, united around Ivan Cepeda’s pre-candidacy, not only leads the polls but does so with a wide and sustained advantage.
With 31.9% of voting intention, the senator from the ruling Historical Pact has become the dominant figure in the first stretch of the race, capitalizing on the support of the sector seeking continuity for the project initiated by the current government.
The rest of the political landscape, however, presents a much more dynamic and fragmented picture. While Cepeda consolidates support and projects internal stability, his main opponents appear far behind in the polls. The far-right independent Abelardo de la Espriella reaches 18%, becoming the closest rival, and centrist Sergio Fajardo appears with 8.5%, still without clear momentum.
Nevertheless, what is most revealing is that, in contrast to the order within the progressive bloc, the right still fails to achieve the much-announced consensus, while a multitude of pre-candidacies not only disperse the vote and confuse the electorate but also reveal the deep differences — political and otherwise — within Colombia’s conservative spectrum.
Colombia’s 2026 elections: The left leads in polls as infighting deepens on the right
Ivan Cepeda’s pre-candidacy has succeeded in articulating a message that connects with voters who value the social advances, the peace agenda, and the reforms undertaken in recent years — albeit not without difficulty — by the current government.
After an internal process that concluded more than a month ago, the left-wing coalition unified its bid around him without major setbacks. The absence of public fractures and the clarity of the road map have helped his platform gain traction in a national environment marked by frustration over the internal disputes within other sectors.
The 31.9% he currently holds in the polls not only places him in a privileged position but also allows him to project himself as the first pre-candidate capable of repeating a ruling-party victory in Colombia after decades of alternation among different right-wing proposals. His strategists interpret this advantage partly as the result of a left that managed to close ranks early, avoiding the uncertainties that often wear down campaigns in this initial phase.
In contrast, the outlook for the center and the right is far from showing solid coordination. For months, the parties and movements within this spectrum have discussed the possibility of building a unified candidacy strong enough to compete effectively in the first round. However, strategic, ideological, and personal differences have prevented them from reaching an agreement.
The most evident case occurred this Monday within the Democratic Center, the main reference of the conservative bloc. The crisis escalated when Miguel Uribe Londoño, until then one of the party’s visible contenders, was expelled from the presidential race after a major disagreement with the leadership over the mechanism to select the party’s candidate.
According to internal sources, the discussion ended in a complete break that exposed the discontent that had accumulated within the party for months, at a time when the right should be seeking cohesion rather than deepening its fractures.
The dispute within the Democratic Center reveals the weak standing of its presidential hopefuls
The episode has had immediate consequences. Uribe Londoño’s abrupt departure, far from closing the discussion, opened a series of questions about what the party’s strategy will be to regain ground and play a leading role in the national competition. The internal dispute reinforces the perception of a bloc that has lost its way and is far more focused on settling leadership struggles than on presenting a clear proposal to the country.
Meanwhile, De la Espriella, an independent lawyer with proposals aligned with Nayib Bukele’s reactionary populism in El Salvador, is emerging as the right’s most competitive candidate, benefiting from the vacuum left by the lack of a strong figure in the traditional parties.
With his 18%, he positions himself as the most visible standard-bearer for right-wing voters, but he does so without a robust party structure that would allow him to project sustained growth. His rise, although noteworthy, seems to depend more on the internal breakdown of the conservative bloc than on the organic consolidation of his own project.
A stagnant political center amid polarization
The figure of Sergio Fajardo, who was a key player in previous cycles, now reflects the difficulties faced by the center in offering a competitive alternative. With 8.5% voting intention, his candidacy is moving forward slowly, caught in a moment when the electorate appears inclined toward more polarized options or those more clearly associated with the continuity of recent policies.
Although some sectors insist that there is still room for a revival of the center, the current dynamics show that the public conversation is shifting toward the extremes of the spectrum, leaving little space for moderate candidacies that fail to strongly distinguish themselves.
In fact, this political sector runs the risk — as already happened in 2022 — of being overtaken by strong polarization, or even by the emergence — as three years ago — of an independent candidate with an anti-establishment message.
Although there is still a long way to go, current trends offer a stark portrait: The left arrives strengthened and unified, while the right is going through one of its most complex stages in recent years. The internal battle within the Democratic Center, far from being resolved, threatens to drag on and affect the bloc’s ability to present a cohesive alternative.
The lead held by Cepeda not only reflects the country’s political moment, but also a profound reorganization of the forces that have traditionally shaped elections in Colombia. If the right fails to rebuild its structures and close ranks soon, it could enter a race weakened — one that, for now, appears to be shaped by the stability of a single bloc.