As Colombia gears up for its 2026 presidential election, two contrasting figures — Colombian presidential hopefuls Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo De la Espriella — are emerging as central contenders, according to data from the cryptocurrency-based betting platform Polymarket and recent opinion polls.
Polymarket’s prediction market, which tracks betting odds on which candidate will win the presidency, currently shows an exceptionally close race between Cepeda and De la Espriella.
As of late December 2025, both candidates are trading around the same odds of winning: Each with roughly 36–37% implied probability of victory. In the same market, former Medellin mayor and longstanding centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo trails with around 14% odds, with other contenders far behind.
Betting markets reflect uncertain voter sentiment
Prediction markets such as Polymarket aggregate the expectations of traders who bet real funds based on their predictions of election outcomes. These markets can react swiftly to news and public sentiment — and the current “tie” between Cepeda and de la Espriella suggests a divided view of Colombian voters and watchers about who might ascend to the presidency next year.
Ivan Cepeda Castro, a seasoned senator with deep roots in the left-wing Pacto Historico coalition, has been a prominent political figure in Colombia for years, known for his advocacy on human rights and progressive causes. Traditionally seen as part of the ideological continuation of outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s political project, Cepeda’s strong showing in prediction markets mirrors his performance in recent voter intention polls.
In contrast, according to Semana, Abelardo De la Espriella — a lawyer and outspoken conservative voice — has built momentum as a right-wing alternative, drawing support from voters dissatisfied with traditional party elites and establishing himself as a contender capable of challenging the left’s dominance.
Traditional polls show Cepeda ahead
While Polymarket reflects a statistical tie, traditional polling data points to a more defined lead for Ivan Cepeda, says Infobae. The latest national survey from Invamer, published in early December 2025, places Cepeda well ahead of his rivals with around 31.9% of the vote share, more than 13 points above Abelardo De la Espriella, who stands near 18.2%. Sergio Fajardo and other candidates lag further behind in this poll.
This divergence between betting markets and public opinion polls highlights the complex dynamics shaping Colombia’s electoral landscape. Traditional surveys measure declared voting intentions among respondents at a specific point in time, while Polymarket’s odds can reflect expectations about future developments, including campaign events, alliances, or political shifts. Analysts caution that both tools have limitations and should be viewed as complementary rather than definitive.
What the trends suggest
The broad picture emerging from available data suggests three key takeaways:
Cepeda retains a structural advantage in traditional vote intention polls. His standing as the leading choice among surveyed voters cements his role as a frontrunner, particularly within the progressive bloc.
De la Espriella’s rise in betting markets underscores his appeal to certain segments — especially among those skeptical of the political establishment — even if that support hasn’t fully translated into consistent poll leads.
The race remains fluid. With several months remaining before the first round scheduled for May 2026, shifts in voter sentiment, campaign strategy, and broader national issues could reshape both polling figures and market expectations.
Looking ahead
As Colombian voters prepare to head to the polls next year, the contest between Colombian presidential hopefuls Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo De la Espriella — as reflected in both Polymarket and traditional polls — highlights a deeply polarized electorate. Cepeda’s strong poll numbers signal enduring support among progressive voters, while De la Espriella’s competitive odds in prediction markets speak to broader uncertainty and perhaps waning confidence in established political options.
Political analysts emphasize that with such a fragmented field and competing measures of support, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether this contest solidifies into a clear two-candidate race or remains open up to the first round