Right-wing political outsider Abelardo De La Espriella would defeat left-wing senator Ivan Cepeda in a hypothetical presidential runoff in Colombia’s 2026 election, according to a new AtlasIntel poll released on Saturday.
The survey, which was conducted for Semana magazine, indicates a significant shift in voter intent just five months before Colombia’s Presidential election, suggesting that the right could reclaim the presidency in a head-to-head confrontation.
In this hypothetical scenario, AtlasIntel found that De La Espriella would capture close to 44.2% of the vote, compared to Cepeda’s 34.9%. The poll also tested other scenarios, where centrist Sergio Fajardo and Centro Democratico pre-candidate Paloma Valencia would also beat Cepeda in a runoff, though by fine margins.
De La Espriella leads voter intent in Colombia with 28%, Cepeda follows at 26.5%
In the first-round standings, AtlasIntel found that De La Espriella leads voter intention with 28%, followed closely by Cepeda at 26.5%. Sergio Fajardo, representing the center, remains a distant third at 9.4%. Other contenders, such as Juan Carlos Pinzón and Paloma Valencia, each hold 5.1% of the vote. Crucially, the poll also reflects a deeply polarized electorate, with only 1.1% stating they will not vote and 7.2% intending to cast a blank ballot.
The political landscape for Colombia’s right remains deeply disjointed. While De La Espriella currently leads as an independent, other conservative figures are competing for a unified bid under “La Gran Consulta por Colombia.” This preliminary election set for March 8 features right-wing pre-candidates like Paloma Valencia, Vicky Davila, and Juan Carlos Pinzon.
Valencia currently leads the consultation with a voter intent of 19.1%. Pinzon follows at 13.1%. The winner of this consultation is expected to challenge De La Espriella for the leadership of Colombia’s conservative movement.
The survey relied on AtlasIntel’s RDR
The survey’s methodology relied on AtlasIntel’s proprietary “Random Digital Recruitment” (Atlas RDR), which uses digital sampling to reach respondents across the country. Between January 5 and January 8, 2026, the firm polled 4,520 individuals with a 1% margin of error and a 95% confidence level. The demographic breakdown showed a balanced gender participation of 51.7% women and 48.3% men. Geographically, the largest segments came from the Central region (34.2%), followed by the Caribbean (21.6%) and Bogotá (21.4%).
The poll was also carried out in the middle of a period of political volatility following the US’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on January 3rd. This event seemingly affected the approval of President Petro, as 53.5% of the respondents expressed a negative view toward the President. In contrast, only 35.7% of those questioned have a positive opinion of Petro. Additionally, 42.4% of those questioned rate the administration as bad or very bad.
As the race for Colombia’s presidency heats up, it is worth noting that the left has largely unified around Cepeda, who holds 92.3% of support inside the pacto amplio, while the right remains fragmented around several figures, suggesting a runoff election will be challenging for both sides.