The latest poll by the firm Gad3, released in Colombia yesterday, Sunday, and conducted for local media outlets RCN and La FM, validates a clear trend in voting intentions toward a two-party race, with ruling party candidate Ivan Cepeda leading by a significant margin and far-right contender Abelardo De la Espriella consolidating his position in second place, while other hopefuls trail far behind in voter preferences.
The survey data show that if elections were held today, Cepeda would secure around 30% of voting intentions, leading De la Espriella by eight points, as the latter stands at 22%, and leaving Senator Paloma Valencia in a distant third place with just 3% support.
The outlook points to a contest marked by the concentration of support around these two figures — and the strong polarization this implies between the left and the right — while the remaining candidates barely register marginal figures in the first round. While Cepeda continues to send messages aimed at winning in the first round — something that appears unlikely — the poll points to an eventual victory for the left as well in a second round against De la Espriella.
Poll validates ruling party candidate Ivan Cepeda’s victory in Colombia’s presidential race
Ivan Cepeda, a senator from the left-wing Historic Pact and a figure close to the current government of President Petro, emerges as the leading favorite in the presidential race. The Gad3 poll, based on a representative sample of voters, shows that his advantage is not only maintained in direct voting intention but also carries over into potential second-round scenarios. In one-on-one matchups against other key candidates, Cepeda remains ahead, consolidating a perception of leadership beyond the absolute figures of the first round.
Cepeda’s lead over De la Espriella, while not overwhelming, is consistent and is repeated across different voting-intention analyses published in recent months by different polling firms. In runoff simulations, Cepeda outperforms his far-right rival even when greater voter alignment behind De la Espriella is assumed. This scenario paints a picture in which the ruling party candidate not only starts with an advantage but also manages to attract less polarized segments of the electorate, which could prove decisive in a second round.
Abelardo De la Espriella has consolidated his position as the main alternative to Cepeda within the conservative and right-wing spectrum, which, as in other countries, is clearly leaning toward populist far-right positions. His strong showing in the polls, at around 22% in Gad3’s latest measurement, reflects that his message and strategy have resonated with a significant portion of the electorate seeking an option at the opposite end of the spectrum from progressivism.
The controversial lawyer and his movement, Defenders of the Fatherland, are capitalizing on discontent with other traditional political forces — something that already occurred in 2022 — and his rise in voting preferences has been one of the most widely discussed phenomena of the current campaign.
De la Espriella’s growth represents an internal challenge for traditional right-wing parties and coalitions, many of which have failed to consolidate a competitive leadership in the face of this emerging figure’s advance. In contrast to earlier polls in which other moderate or centrist candidates appeared better positioned, the current survey places De la Espriella as Cepeda’s main rival, suggesting an even more pronounced polarization dynamic than in past electoral cycles.
The political center and the traditional right lag behind in the race
While Cepeda and De la Espriella dominate the electoral spotlight, candidates associated with the traditional political center have failed to consolidate sufficient support to compete head-to-head with the two frontrunners.
Gad3’s figures show that candidate Paloma Valencia — who, while not a centrist but rather a member of the right-wing Democratic Center — occupies a distant third place with just 3% support, alongside other hopefuls with even lower percentages, underscoring the difficulty that political space faces in positioning itself in the current electoral landscape. Trailing Valencia are Juan Manuel Galan, Vicky Davila, and Juan Carlos Pinzon, all at 2%.
This stagnation of the political center is not an isolated phenomenon. Other polls in recent years have also pointed to the fragmentation and weakness of centrist candidacies, in contrast to the consolidation of options on both the left and the right. The lack of clear leadership in that segment may be helping figures such as Cepeda and De la Espriella absorb a larger share of voters seeking clear and defined — albeit polarizing — alternatives.
As the first round approaches, voting-intention figures become a barometer of the country’s social and political mood. The Gad3 poll not only shows Cepeda in the lead but also indicates growing support for both him and De la Espriella relative to the distant third place. This concentration of preferences around two candidates suggests the race will take on a strongly dual character, largely shaped by how effectively each mobilizes their base and persuades undecided voters.
The presence of a considerable share of voters who remain undecided or reject the candidates mentioned also adds uncertainty as to how the landscape may evolve in the coming months. That group of voters could tip the balance in a very close first round or even shape the outcome of a potential runoff.
For now, however, the trend reflected in the polls places Ivan Cepeda as the clear favorite, with Abelardo De la Espriella firmly established as his main challenger on the path to the presidential palace at Casa de Nariño.
De la Espriella calls for the consolidation of the conservative vote
Following the publication of this study, which is in line with previous ones, the right-wing candidate De la Espriella called for the consolidation of the right-wing vote, leveling strong criticism and accusations against his left-wing opponent, Ivan Cepeda.
“My candidacy is the only one that can confront and defeat the worst threat Colombia has faced in its entire history: Ivan Cepeda. Radical populism is united around Petro’s heir and the narco-guerrilla,” De la Espriella wrote on his personal account on the social media platform X.
The populist candidate added a message to his rivals on the right. “El Tigre [the name he calls himself] is a popular phenomenon; true unity is with the people. Everyone who wants to join in waging the decisive battle is still welcome here. Consistent with this, I urgently ask the pack, for the umpteenth time, not to get distracted by sterile arguments with other candidates and their supporters. The only enemy is Cepeda; the fight is with him — let’s focus,” he concluded.
Todas las encuestas han sido claras, gracias a Dios: mi candidatura es la única que puede enfrentar y derrotar a la peor amenaza que ha tenido Colombia en toda su historia: Iván Cepeda. El populismo radical está unido en torno al heredero de Petro y la narcoguerrilla.
El Tigre… pic.twitter.com/H8QrSGrTFv
— Abelardo De La Espriella (@ABDELAESPRIELLA) January 19, 2026