Colombia One spoke with Juan Falkonerth, political analyst and consultant, to examine the growing tensions shaping Colombia’s electoral landscape as the country enters a decisive pre-electoral phase. The pre-election analysis during the interview addresses mounting concerns from opposition sectors over the alleged use of state power, official rhetoric, and public policy decisions that may be influencing the political playing field ahead of the presidential elections.
Falkonerth analyzes the public involvement of Colombian President Gustavo Petro and members of his cabinet in political and electoral debates, as well as claims that government actions could be indirectly favoring the ruling movement’s candidate, Ivan Cepeda. He outlines the institutional mechanisms available to respond to these allegations, highlighting the oversight roles of the Comptroller General’s Office, the Inspector General’s Office, the National Electoral Council, and, if warranted, the Attorney General’s Office.
The conversation also explores recent government measures with strong social impact — such as the reduction in fuel prices and the significant increase in the minimum wage — and questions whether these initiatives represent responsible public policy or electoral strategies framed within a populist narrative.
Falkonerth assesses their fiscal sustainability and political appeal, particularly among social sectors historically dissatisfied with Colombia’s political class.
Beyond the actions of the current government, the interview examines how the opposition field is consolidating. Falkonerth reviews recent polls and consultation dynamics, noting that a broad alliance of right-wing, center-right, and moderate forces is emerging as a key electoral contender.
According to current trends, the winner of this coalition’s consultation could quickly become one of the strongest challengers in the final stretch of the race.
Within this evolving scenario, Falkonerth highlights Paloma Valencia as a candidate gaining momentum due to strong party backing, the mobilizing influence of a former president, and a discourse perceived as more conciliatory and expansive than traditional hard-line positions. Her profile, he argues, reflects deeper realignments in Colombia’s political map.
Finally, the interview addresses the role of former presidents in shaping the pre-electoral debate, particularly following recent remarks by Juan Manuel Santos questioning President Petro’s handling of the peace process and expressing disappointment with the government’s “total peace” strategy.
Falkonerth analyzes how these narratives — and speculation around potential political figures — underscore the continued influence of past leaders in defining alliances, candidates, and strategic bets as Colombia approaches a defining electoral moment.