The latest national poll published by Guarumo and EcoAnalítica confirms a clear trend in Colombia’s presidential race: left-wing senator Iván Cepeda maintains a sustained lead over his closest competitor, while at the same time signs are emerging that other political forces—such as Democratic Center right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia—are gaining ground, though still far behind the race’s frontrunners.
Data collected between January 14 and 22 show that Cepeda leads first-round voting intentions, with a significant gap over his main right-wing rival, far-right populist lawyer Abelardo De la Espriella, and that the electoral landscape remains fragmented, with a high percentage of undecided voters who could redefine the contest up to Election Day.
New poll in Colombia confirms Cepeda’s lead, opens path for Paloma Valencia
Iván Cepeda, a senator from the ruling Historic Pact, appears at the top of electoral preferences with 33.6% of voting intention, according to the Guarumo and EcoAnalítica poll recently published by several Colombian media outlets. This result gives him a substantial advantage over his closest competitors and positions him as the favorite to reach the presidency in the elections scheduled for May 31.
The achievement of this leadership comes in a political context marked by recent government decisions—such as the minimum wage increase promoted by President Gustavo Petro, an ally of Cepeda—and by ongoing polarization among the country’s different political forces. The survey, which consulted more than 4,200 people in 83 municipalities nationwide, is so far the most extensive measurement published in 2026 using this methodology.
The data show that Cepeda’s advantage is not superficial: in all the hypothetical runoff scenarios evaluated, the Historic Pact leader outperforms his direct rivals. For example, in a matchup with De la Espriella, Cepeda would stand at around 39.4% support versus 33.9% for his opponent, although a high percentage of voters have yet to decide their final vote.
De la Espriella consolidates himself as the main contender
Behind Cepeda, the poll places— as in previous studies—Abelardo De la Espriella with 18.2% of voting intention, consolidating him as the second-strongest contender in the race. De la Espriella, a lawyer who has built his independent candidacy through signature gathering and outside traditional party structures, has managed to capture a significant portion of the right-wing and far-right electorate, though still far from catching up to the left-wing candidate.
His growth—from much more modest positions just months ago—reflects, in part, the disillusionment of certain conservative sectors with traditional options and the search for alternative political leadership that, in his case, combines a hardline discourse on security with proposals for change.
Despite this, his distance from Cepeda remains wide, and the far-right candidate will face a significant challenge if he hopes to narrow that gap in the months leading up to the election.
Reactions within the political environment have been swift. De la Espriella has publicly acknowledged that the results reflect a challenge, but has insisted that “there is still a road ahead” to consolidate a campaign that, in his words, has not yet reached its full potential.
Así va el promedio de encuestas de enero: pic.twitter.com/H4V6hJE6tc
— Luis Angel (@luisangelgd) January 25, 2026
Guarumos’s poll: Paloma Valencia emerges among the traditional right’s candidates
One of the striking findings of the poll is the rise of Paloma Valencia, a senator from the Democratic Center party, who with 6.9% of voting intention has become a relevant figure within the traditional right-wing bloc. Although her percentage is far from that of the race’s front-runners, her growth is significant given that the Gran Consulta por Colombia—the internal vote of center-right and right-wing forces scheduled for March 8—is still ahead.
In this context, Valencia emerges as one of the leading contenders in the consultation that will determine the candidate of the coalition opposing the Historic Pact. In figures that consider only the candidates from that bloc, the senator leads with a clear advantage over other participants such as Vicky Dávila, Juan Manuel Galán, and Enrique Peñalosa, suggesting that her chances of becoming the single standard-bearer of that sector continue to grow.
This momentum within the right comes as a surprise compared with previous measurements, in which the fragmentation of the center-right had been cited as a factor weakening its prospects against Cepeda. Valencia’s growth could point to a consolidation of that political space, although this will still need to be confirmed after the internal consultation.
Colombia necesita volver a creer.
Creer en el orden que protege,
en la firmeza que no se arrodilla,
y en el corazón que piensa en la gente.Eso es lo que representamos en #LaGranConsulta pic.twitter.com/3idA1uV9DT
— Paloma Valencia L (@PalomaValenciaL) January 25, 2026
The overall landscape and undecided voters
Beyond individual names, one of the aspects highlighted by the poll is the high percentage of undecided voters, close to 25%, which could tip the balance in any of the possible runoff scenarios. This figure indicates that, despite current trends, the campaign remains open and susceptible to significant changes in the coming weeks.
Other candidates such as Vicky Dávila and Sergio Fajardo trail further behind in voting intention, with lower percentages, confirming the persistent fragmentation of the electorate beyond the two leading figures. This dispersion of options reinforces the importance of alliances and the outcomes of the internal primaries ahead, especially on the right.
As the election date approaches, these figures provide a snapshot of a still dynamic moment in Colombian politics, in which campaign strategies, the forging of alliances, and the participation of undecided voters will be decisive for the outcome of an election shaping up to be closely contested and full of expectations.