In the latest expectations survey published by the central bank of Colombia and cited by several financial market analysts, inflation in the South American country will close 2026 at around 6.33%, far from the final target of 3%. This points to a complex economic year in terms of prices and macroeconomic stability.
This estimate represents not only a slight upward adjustment in expectations compared to previous reports, but also a sign that inflationary pressures continue to be a central element of the economic debate in the country amid an economic recovery that has not fully eased tensions on consumer prices.
The data projecting an increase in inflation by the end of 2026 — placing it around one percentage point above what was observed in January (5.35%) and remaining above the institutional target — have generated concern in markets, households, and businesses.
Figures pointing to inflation above 6% contrast with both national and international monetary policy targets and reflect the complexity of an economic environment that combines domestic factors, such as rising labor costs and the dynamics of regulated prices, with external pressures and a still volatile global context.
Analysts in Colombia forecast inflation of 6.33% by the end of 2026
Inflation projections are based on several factors that have shaped recent economic performance. On the one hand, overall inflation in Colombia closed 2025 above the Central Bank’s target, at 5.1% according to official figures from DANE.
From that base, analysts have been adjusting their projections toward 6.33% by the end of 2026, indicating that the downward trend in prices has been more gradual and uneven than expected.
Core inflation, which excludes food and regulated items — a measure many economists monitor to assess the structural trend in prices — has also shown upward revisions, implying persistent cost pressures beyond the volatile components of the basket.
This scenario has been influenced by economic policy decisions such as the recently decreed increase in the minimum wage — still under legal scrutiny — which, according to various analyses, may have effects on both the labor market and prices.
Higher wages can boost domestic demand, but they may also lead to higher costs for businesses, which in some sectors could pass those costs on to the final prices of goods and services.
In addition, categories such as food and regulated services have shown volatility that, combined with adjustments in interest rates, has complicated inflation management.
In terms of monetary policy, the board of directors of the issuing bank has responded to this environment with decisions aimed at containing inflationary pressures. In January, the entity raised its monetary policy interest rate by one point, reflecting a more restrictive stance in an attempt to curb price growth.
However, even with these measures, estimates still point to a year-end inflation rate above the target range, suggesting that the available tools have had a mitigating effect but have not been sufficient to return inflation to levels close to 3%.
Longer-term inflation projections
The study also works with assumptions beyond this year. In this regard, 2027 could mark the beginning of a slowdown path. The scenario projected by analysts for that year sets inflation at 5.76%, substantially lower than the 6.15% estimated last January.
The downward trend would continue throughout 2027. By the end of that year, inflation would stand at 4.76%, slightly below the previously forecast 4.82%. Even for early 2028, expectations continue to be revised downward: The projection fell from 4.70% in January to 4.50% in the most recent survey.
At five years, expectations — subject to considerable caution given the unpredictability of such a long-term scenario — show a slight increase, rising from 3.40% to 3.50%. Nevertheless, despite that upward adjustment, inflation would remain close to the 3% target set by Colombia’s monetary authorities.
Consequences for the cost of living and the financial market
A scenario in which inflation stands at around 6.33% by the end of 2026 has direct implications for Colombians’ daily lives. Sustained price increases erode the purchasing power of fixed incomes, especially in sectors of the population that allocate a larger share of their budget to basic consumption.
In middle- or low-income households, this may translate into greater difficulty in purchasing food, essential services, and other indispensable goods, forcing adjustments in consumption patterns.
The impact also extends to the financial market and the business sector. Inflation expectations affect decisions on investment, saving, and borrowing. High inflation tends to put upward pressure on nominal interest rates, making credit more expensive for businesses and consumers.
This can slow productive investment and affect medium-term economic growth, creating a cycle in which price pressures and high rates hinder economic reactivation.
In the foreign exchange market, inflation projections have had tangible effects. The appreciation of the peso against the dollar, although influenced by multiple global factors, has been pressured by expectations of persistent inflation in Colombia, which can discourage capital flows into peso-denominated assets and strengthen demand for foreign currencies as a haven.
This phenomenon has consequences for the prices of imported goods, which may become more expensive, in turn fueling inflationary pressures and raising input costs for sectors that depend on imports.
Likewise, the persistence of high inflation could influence dialogue among the government, business leaders, and unions, especially in the context of future wage negotiations.
According to most economic experts, while wage increases seek to protect workers’ real incomes, they can also fuel inflation expectations if not matched by a proportional increase in productivity and the supply of goods and services.
Achieving a balance between social protection and economic stability, therefore, remains one of the most important challenges for authorities and economic players in Colombia.