The announcement by the President of the United States to raise his global tariffs to 15% following a decision by the Supreme Court has once again sown uncertainty in international markets and, in particular, in Bogota and throughout Colombia’s entire production chain.
Although the measure has a global scope and is not designed exclusively against Colombia, the fact that the northern neighbor is the country’s main trading partner means its effects are immediately felt in strategic sectors such as coffee, flowers, and oil.
The United States has historically been the destination for a considerable share of Colombian exports, and any change in tariff rules alters not only trade balances but also the lives of thousands of producers and workers who depend on these exchanges.
The new rate means that products that until recently entered with zero tariffs or a lower surcharge now face an additional tax that raises their price in the U.S. market and benefits key competitors that, like Brazil, had higher tariffs and will now see them reduced to 15%.
It is worth recalling that, despite last year’s clashes between Washington and Bogota, Colombia maintained a tariff of only 10%, so this surcharge would now increase by 5 percentage points.
This barrier may influence Colombia’s competitiveness compared to other suppliers, the profitability of exporting companies, and ultimately the local economies of producing regions. In an environment where globalization and supply chains are under pressure from protectionist policies, the response of Colombia’s export sector will be a key indicator of the direction this bilateral trade relationship takes.
How would the new 15% US tariffs affect Colombia?
Although the measure imposing a 15% global tariff will last only 150 days, unless it receives prior approval from the U.S. Congress, the impact is already being felt in Colombia with a slight rise in the dollar’s price, as markets await potentially stronger effects on the country’s main export products.
In this regard, coffee is one of Colombia’s flagship products worldwide, with a historic presence in the cups of millions of American consumers. Traditionally, thanks to trade agreements and treaties such as the FTA between Colombia and the United States, this product enjoyed preferential access without significant tariff barriers.
That scenario is changing with the new tariff policy. A 15% tariff on coffee exports could translate into a direct increase in the price U.S. importers pay for Colombian beans, which in turn could pressure roasters and retail chains to reconsider volumes or seek alternative suppliers.
For Colombian producers, this represents a double challenge. On the one hand, margins may shrink if exporters decide to absorb part of the tariff to maintain their product’s competitiveness.
On the other hand, there is the possibility that the additional cost will ultimately be passed on to the final consumer in the United States, affecting demand.
The balance between these factors will determine whether Colombian coffee remains a solid bet for importers or whether, over time, it loses ground to competitors from other countries that also supply this product to the North American market but face different cost structures and tariff policies.
Flowers and oil in the trade balance
Colombian flowers, especially roses and other ornamental products, are another pillar of nontraditional exports to the United States. This market has grown in recent decades, with peak seasons coinciding with key dates such as Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day.
A 15% tariff automatically raises the cost of the imported product, which may reduce Colombian flower growers’ room for maneuver or discourage U.S. buyers from purchasing flowers sourced abroad.
Competition in the floral sector is fierce: Countries such as Ecuador and others in Central America also supply flowers to the U.S. market and could find in a general tariff an opportunity to position themselves more favorably if they manage their costs more efficiently.
Colombia, therefore, faces a competitive challenge in which not only the tariff matters, but also how quickly companies can adapt their market strategies, logistics, and negotiating capacity. The possibility of relocating part of production or exploring new niches is also part of this adaptation game.
Unlike coffee and flowers, Colombian oil has had a more complex treatment under U.S. tariff policy. At certain times, and depending on the exceptions contemplated in the tariff proclamation, some items related to energy products could be excluded or subject to different duties.
This is due in part to the importance of oil in the structure of U.S. imports, where domestic production and geopolitical considerations play a relevant role.
However, the mere possibility of an additional tariff implies adjustments in contracts and in the profitability of exported crude. If part of energy production becomes subject to 15%, it will become more expensive at the point of entry into the U.S. market, which may lead to reduced competitiveness compared to other suppliers or even a revision of commercial strategies by Colombian companies.
On the other hand, if the exclusion remains in place for fuels or refined products, the impact would be smaller than in the agricultural sector, although uncertainty persists given the volatility of current trade policies.
Three major groups in Colombian exports to the US
According to the Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham Colombia), exported goods are divided into three major groups that define their vulnerability to the tariff hike. The first consists of products clearly excluded from the duty: although marginal in volume, these goods have legal certainty that they will not pay the additional tariff even if it rises to 15%. This block offers a small zone of commercial stability.
The second group, broader and critical for the country, includes goods that could be exempt depending on their exact tariff classification within the U.S. system. Key exports such as green coffee, crude oil, bananas, and gold fall into this category: Their duty is not automatic, but depends on specific codes that companies must declare accurately to avoid paying.
Finally, the third group includes products that would pay the full tariff, with a direct impact on their prices and competitiveness. These include cut flowers, palm oil, and several industrial goods that generate thousands of jobs and depend on the U.S. market for growth.
With all this in mind, the coming weeks will be decisive in assessing the effects of this new turn in the trade war that President Trump began a year ago and which, judging by recent events, does not appear to be the final chapter of a script that is shaking international commercial and economic stability.