With just over three months to go before the first round of Colombia’s presidential elections, a new voter intention poll confirms the trends seen in previous surveys and sketches an electoral landscape seemingly contested between two opposing ways of conceiving the management of public life.
The survey conducted by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (Celag, by its acronym in Spanish) shows that, despite the high fragmentation of the electorate, two figures are emerging strongly in the race toward the presidential palace: Ivan Cepeda, a senator from the ruling Historic Pact party, and Abelardo de La Espriella, a lawyer and businessman who leads the list of right-wing hopefuls.
These results not only position both politicians as the possible main protagonists of the contest, but also reflect a polarized society in which majorities are moving between two antagonistic visions of the nation’s future.
The poll — published on Feb. 24 — finds that Cepeda leads voting intention with about 32.8% support, while De La Espriella follows with a significant but lower figure, around 25.2%. The gap between the two is not trivial, but the margin shows a race that is still open, with broad sectors of undecided voters or voters who could change their preference in the coming weeks of the campaign.
The survey comes at a time when political tensions and cross-criticisms among candidates are intensifying public debate, and when voters are paying attention not only to proposals but also to each hopeful’s communication strategies.
New poll in Colombia confirms that the presidency is a two-horse race
What the Celag survey makes evident is a contest shaped by two ideological axes. On the one hand, Ivan Cepeda represents the continuity of President Gustavo Petro’s political project and of a sector of the Colombian left that has sought to consolidate deep reforms in different spheres of the state.
His lead in the poll suggests that this bloc maintains a solid base of support, especially among young and urban sectors who see in him the possibility of deepening structural changes that the current government has not managed to turn into law due to strong opposition in Congress.
Cepeda has built his career arguing that Colombia needs a clear transition toward more social and redistributive policies, in contrast to decades of predominance by traditional elites.
Facing that narrative, Abelardo de La Espriella embodies a right-wing option with an emphasis on law, security, and order. A lawyer and businessman, De La Espriella has centered much of his discourse on restoring public safety and on a frontal fight against drug trafficking and illegal armed groups.
His proposal has generated support among sectors concerned about violence and the perceived deterioration of governability. Although his campaign has sparked controversy — such as the promise of forceful offensives against “narco-terrorist” camps — the survey indicates that his message resonated with an electorate seeking a different approach to public security management in recent years, promising to govern along lines similar to proposals seen in nearby countries such as Javier Milei’s Argentina.
Beyond the two leaders
While Cepeda and De La Espriella dominate voting intention, other names appear in the survey with much lower levels of support. Paloma Valencia (4.6%), from the Democratic Center party, and former governor Sergio Fajardo (4.4%) stand below 5%, reflecting the difficulty traditional or centrist contenders face in competing for the front line of the electorate.
With even less support are Miguel Uribe Londoño (1.9%), Vicky Davila (1.5%), Roy Barreras, and Juan Manuel Galan (1%). Finally, notable is the presence of a group of candidates with less than 1% preference, such as Claudia Lopez, Clara Lopez, Daniel Quintero, German Vargas Lleras, Carlos Caicedo, Juan Fernando Cristo, and Maurice Armitage.
The landscape reflects a fragmented political system where polarization is gaining ground, while figures who were once pillars of Colombian politics are losing visibility in favor of positions associated with the new populist right.
This scenario partially contradicts the recent history of presidential contests, where traditional centrist parties and coalitions used to play relevant roles in defining candidacies.
In these elections, however, polarization between radically different proposals appears to be the main driver of the competition, drawing much of the electorate toward opposite ends of the political spectrum.
The sense that the election could end in a runoff on June 21 is present in analyses, given the current voting intention percentages and the absence of a clear candidate surpassing the threshold needed for a first-round victory.
A crucial aspect of this survey is the presence of a significant percentage of citizens who have not yet decided on their vote or who are willing to change it. That group of undecided voters could tip the balance in the coming weeks as campaigns intensify their efforts, debates are held, and citizens evaluate each candidate’s proposals in greater detail.
Media pressure, political alliances, and public discourse will be decisive in shaping the final configuration of voting intention.
The official campaign is still in its early stages, and public attention is also focused on parallel processes, such as the interparty consultations held on March 8 — alongside the congressional elections — which have served as a first thermometer of political mobilization in specific sectors.
Although the current survey does not directly measure that event, the outcome of the consultations will influence the overall landscape ahead of May 31. In many cases, the results of these consultations will serve to consolidate candidacies or to reorganize strategic alliances ahead of the first round.
The landscape in a possible runoff
The Celag survey also sets out the prospects for these two hypothetical contenders in a possible runoff, which would be held on June 21. According to the study, the ruling coalition’s presidential hopeful would obtain 45.3% of voting intention, while the right-wing candidate would secure 38.4%.
It is important to note that the survey indicates that 12.9% of respondents said they would not vote for either of the two candidates — Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de La Espriella — and that 3.4% preferred not to respond, so the final margin between the two candidates remains open.
While it is true that the runoff projection shows Cepeda maintaining a certain advantage, the distance from his main contender narrows compared to the first round. In the previous survey, also conducted by Celag Data, the senator recorded a 13-point lead over De La Espriella in a general voting scenario, but in the recent runoff, that gap shrinks to 6.9 percentage points.
Finally, the Celag study reveals that Ivan Cepeda has the best image perception among Colombians, with 45.6% expressing a positive opinion, compared to 39.9% who hold a negative view.
🇨🇴🔥 ENCUESTA COLOMBIA 2026
👍🏽 Iván Cepeda posee un 45,6% de imagen positiva y un 48,1% de las y los colombianos podrían llegar a votarlo.
🗳️ Además, es el candidato con mayor intención de voto de cara a la primera y a la segunda vuelta presidencial. pic.twitter.com/daXF0KEoVs
— CELAG DATA (@CELAGeopolitica) February 24, 2026