Next Sunday, March 8, Colombia is preparing for the first of the year’s three major electoral events: the legislative elections that will define the composition of Congress for the 2026–2030 term. Six days before the vote, Colombia legislative elections polls conducted by various specialized firms show a close contest among the country’s main political forces, with the Historic Pact and the Democratic Center leading voting intention, while traditional parties and new movements struggle to secure their institutional survival in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Although voting has not yet taken place, the trends revealed by the polls outline a scenario of polarization and fragmentation that could influence the balance of power ahead of legislative decisions and the interparty consultations being held on the same date.
The possible configurations of the two chambers of Congress are being closely watched not only by analysts but also by citizens who anticipate a shift in the balance of power. In this context, the proportional system that governs the allocation of seats and the minimum thresholds required to gain access to them become key factors in interpreting the results that will emerge on election day.
Based on the latest voting intention polls, it is possible to project how seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives would be distributed if the elections were held today, although uncertainty persists until the day of the vote itself.
Seats are allocated through a proportional representation system. In the Senate, the minimum threshold stands at 3%. In this sense, if 20 million voters participate in an election, only parties that surpass 600,000 votes can access the distribution of seats.
Regarding the House of Representatives, this filter is adjusted to regional realities: Each department calculates its electoral quotient by dividing valid votes by the number of seats available in that jurisdiction, and the threshold is equivalent to 50% of that quotient.
Related: Legislative Elections in Colombia: Main Parties and Candidates Running for Congress.
Polls for the March 8 elections outline Colombia’s political future
The most recent measurements reveal that the Historic Pact, the left-wing political movement that supports current President Gustavo Petro, appears to be the force with the highest support in voting intention for the Senate. According to the Atlas Intel survey, this movement would concentrate more than 29% of preferences (between 20 and 25 seats).
At the same time, the Democratic Center — the right-wing party led by former President Alvaro Uribe — appears as the main competitor with around 17.6% support in the same survey (between 17 and 19 seats).
This gap between the two dominant blocs indicates that, if these figures are confirmed in the final vote, neither would reach the necessary majority on its own in the upper chamber, but both would secure a leadership position that would shape the legislative agenda of the new Congress.
Behind these leaders, other parties with significant political trajectories such as the Conservative Party (14–15 seats), the Party of the U (7–8 seats) and the Liberal Party (15 seats) show figures around 7% or more in voting intention, demonstrating the consolidation of the decline of traditional parties compared to the governing Historic Pact and the Uribista Democratic Center.
The polls also indicate that parties such as Green Alliance (7–9 seats) and the coalition of Radical Change and ALMA (8–9 seats) have lower figures — around 2% or less — putting their ability to guarantee parliamentary representation at risk if they fail to consolidate enough votes. Likewise, the coalition of the Christian party MIRA and New Liberalism would also secure representation in the Senate (5 seats).
Finally, organizations such as the right-wing National Salvation and Patriots, as well as left-wing dissidents Broad United Front — led by Roy Barreras — or Citizen Power, the centrist party Green Oxygen, Safe and Prosperous Colombia, We Believe (Creemos), and the All for Colombia (Con Toda Por Colombia) candidacy of presidential hopeful Juan Daniel Oviedo would be left without representation, according to the latest polls, although in other studies some — especially National Salvation and Broad Unitary Front — obtain three representatives.
This distribution opens the door to negotiations and alliances after March 8, in which intermediate forces could play a decisive role in shaping majorities.
Implications for the Senate and the House of Representatives
In the Senate, where 103 legislators are elected (100 from the national constituency, plus two for Indigenous communities and one allocated to the presidential candidate who finishes second), the Historic Pact and the Democratic Center, with their respective voting intention figures, would be significantly leading the allocation of seats.
The figures projected by the polls could translate into a majority bloc but not a hegemonic one for the Historic Pact, with the Democratic Center as the second force and the remaining traditional parties sharing a third space with a moderate number of senators.
This would shape a plural Senate in which key decisions, from constitutional reforms to political oversight of the executive branch, would require multiparty negotiations.
The House of Representatives, composed of 183 seats distributed by department, special constituencies, and international districts, could show a similar trend, although with greater fragmentation.
In that chamber, poll results suggest that political forces with significant regional backing — such as the Conservative Party and the Party of the U — could maintain substantial caucuses, although without achieving clear leadership.
The ability of these parties to articulate majorities or form an opposition bloc against the government will depend on how seats are distributed at the territorial level, which in turn is influenced by the electoral quotient system governing allocation in each department.
Scenarios and consequences after the vote
Although the polls offer a preview of what could happen, the final result will depend on voter turnout, the efficiency of each campaign in converting intention into effective votes, and the level of undecided voters up to the last moment.
The fact that several parties are fighting against the minimum threshold required to access the distribution of seats adds a layer of uncertainty regarding the exact representation of smaller caucuses once the votes are counted.
The parliamentary representation obtained by these smaller groups could be crucial for the formation of alliances in Congress — whether to support the government’s agenda or to build more solid opposition blocs.
So far, only one thing is clear: Fragmentation in Congress will once again — as happened during the current term — shape the formation of the two chambers of Colombia’s legislative branch, making it more difficult to pass laws and to form a governing majority that will necessarily have to include the plurality of the various political forces with representation.
The official results on Sunday will determine whether this projection holds and how it will impact Colombia’s political dynamics over the next four years, shaping the course of crucial debates such as peace policy, the pressing reform of the health care system, and the country’s economic agenda.