The Colombian government yesterday published a draft decree raising Colombia tariffs from 30% to 50% on a broad list of products imported from Ecuador.
The initiative, presented by the Ministry of Commerce for public comment until March 5, directly responds to Quito’s decision to increase tariffs on Colombian exports to 50%, in a clash that has strained bilateral relations and ignited a tariff war on both sides of the border.
The measure is not yet in force, but its announcement is already altering expectations in productive and commercial sectors involved in cross-border trade, amid an escalation between Bogota and Quito that began in January following Ecuador’s decision to impose a “security fee” on Colombian products, citing shortcomings in the control of organized crime along the shared border.
In that context, Bogota initially decided to apply reciprocal tariffs of 30% on Ecuadorian products, but Quito’s decision to also raise its rates has now led Colombia to match the levy at 50%, in what analysts describe as a spiral of trade retaliation.
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Colombia matches Ecuador’s 50% tariffs on exports
The draft decree published by the Colombian government provides that more than 280 tariff subheadings of products originating in Ecuador would be subject to a 50% tariff. Currently, under a previous decree, some 73 items were already taxed at 30%, but the radical expansion of the list introduces key goods such as pharmaceuticals, furniture, plastics, mineral fuels, wood, and floriculture products, among others.
The measure is presented as a direct reaction to Ecuador’s action, which raised its rates as of March 1 because insufficient action on border security justified higher tariff barriers.
The Colombian government maintains that raising tariffs to 50% responds to the “urgent need” to counter the negative impact of Ecuadorian measures on the economy and to deter what it perceives as unfair trade practices.
According to the explanatory memorandum of the draft, if current conditions persist, imports from Ecuador could fall by as much as 75%, with significant losses in Andean intraregional trade.
The list of affected products covers sectors as varied as food — such as rice, cocoa, sugar, and beans — industrial inputs — such as sulfur and salt — and manufactured goods that traditionally move along the land routes between Colombia and Ecuador.
The tariff dispute is not limited to figures and percentages. It has deep roots in a security controversy between the governments of Gustavo Petro and Daniel Noboa. Quito says that Colombia has failed to meet cooperation commitments to control criminal activity along their shared land border, mainly in the provinces of Carchi and Esmeraldas.
President Noboa has defended his decision to raise tariffs as a tool to pressure and force greater action on security, an argument Bogota rejects, asserting that trade policy is being improperly mixed with public order issues.
Colombia’s response, for its part, includes more than just tariffs. In earlier stages of the crisis, Bogota even temporarily suspended electricity exports to Ecuador and imposed restrictions on certain inputs for national security reasons, in addition to maintaining reciprocal tariffs.
This has fueled an atmosphere of confrontation that private-sector groups and trade associations have described as harmful to local economies, affecting prices, contracts, and key jobs in bilateral trade.
The trade war between neighboring countries
The immediate impact of the projected 50% tariffs by Colombia will first be felt in consumer prices, which will have to absorb higher import costs for Ecuadorian goods entering the Colombian market. In the medium term, bilateral trade risks contracting abruptly, affecting small- and medium-sized businesses that depend on this exchange.
Economists warn that tariff reciprocity, while intended to protect domestic productive sectors, can also erode competitiveness and increase the cost of essential inputs for local industries.
In light of these scenarios, the role of the Andean Community and the dispute-settlement mechanisms of regional agreements could become essential channels for a negotiated de-escalation.
For now, however, the tariff war between Colombia and Ecuador continues, with political decisions that appear to prioritize mutual pressure over border and trade cooperation.
Despite the tension, business leaders on both sides have called for a return to dialogue and the establishment of negotiation mechanisms to halt the spiral of punitive measures.
Ecuadorian exporters have proposed working groups that include security and trade issues, in the hope that moving toward agreements will be more beneficial than exacerbating a dispute that is already severely impacting the flow of goods between the two countries.
Nevertheless, for now, the differences between the two governments are only escalating a trade war, initiated by Quito, that has received a response from Bogota, without room for political negotiation.