Senator Ivan Cepeda has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the race for Colombia’s presidency, maintaining a significant lead as the country prepares for a series of pivotal legislative and consultation elections tomorrow.
According to a polling average compiled by El Pais, Cepeda currently holds 38% of the estimated vote for the first round, placing him well ahead of his nearest competitor.
Representing the Pacto Historico coalition and running as the successor to President Gustavo Petro, Cepeda has seen his support grow by seven percentage points since December. His primary challenger is currently Abelardo de La Espriella, representing the radical right-wing National Salvation Movement. De La Espriella follows in second place with 23% of the intended vote, having gained four points over the last three months.
Nearly 40% of Colombia’s electorate supports other candidates
The political landscape remains crowded and fluid as nearly 40% of the electorate still supports other candidates. Senator Paloma Valencia of Centro Democratico and former Bogota Mayor Claudia Lopez are currently tied at 7% each, while former Antioquia Governor Sergio Fajardo, making his third bid for the presidency, sits at 5%.
Analysts suggest that the race could narrow significantly following this Sunday’s inter-party consultations, which are being held concurrently with legislative elections to solidify the final slate of presidential contenders.
In the center-right “Gran Consulta por Colombia,” Senator Valencia is considered the heavy favorite to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, Claudia Lopez is expected to win the “Consulta de las Soluciones” in the center, and Daniel Quintero maintains a lead over Roy Barreras in the center-left “Frente por la Vida” coalition. These primaries are viewed as the first major milestone in a process that will culminate in the May 31 general election.
Polymarket gives Cepeda 51% chance to become Colombia’s new President
Financial prediction markets currently mirror the polling data but suggest a more volatile outlook. On the Polymarket platform, where participants bet real money on political outcomes, Ivan Cepeda is given a 51% probability of winning the presidency of Colombia.
While this represents a slim majority, it indicates that the race remains a toss-up between Cepeda and the combined strength of his opposition. De La Espriella’s market probability stands at 28%, though he has recently lost ground to Valencia, who has risen to a 12% probability of victory.
Should no candidate exceed the 50% threshold on May 31, a runoff election will be held on June 15. Early hypothetical polling for a second round suggests that Cepeda remains the favorite in potential head-to-head matchups against either De La Espriella or Valencia.
However, with three months of campaigning remaining and primary results pending, the definitive combination of candidates for the decisive June vote is yet to be settled.