Colombia’s right wing woke up this Monday to a different political horizon than the one that seemed to be taking shape just a few months ago, and is now closer to the presidency. The legislative elections and inter-party primaries held yesterday reshaped the electoral board and returned prominence to a figure many had considered sidelined in the presidential race: Paloma Valencia.
The senator and candidate of the Democratic Center party achieved a result that exceeded the expectations of her own political camp and placed her back at the center of the debate over who can lead the conservative bloc in the presidential elections. However, the victory is not only hers, but also for the model of country represented by both her and Abelardo de La Espriella, until now the favorite candidate of the right.
For much of the past year, polls had placed lawyer De La Espriella as the most competitive face of the hard right. His confrontational discourse against the government and his media profile had made him the favorite within that ideological spectrum.
However, Valencia’s electoral performance altered that narrative and opened a new scenario in which the leadership of the right no longer appears concentrated in a single figure, but rather divided between two candidacies that, although competing with each other, share an electorate that largely overlaps.
All scenarios remain open, but the sum of these two rights — which at their core represent the same model of country — in a potential second round against — almost certainly — the left-wing continuity candidate Ivan Cepeda could be enough for power to return to those who held it for much of the two centuries of republican history.
Colombia’s right wing moves closer to the presidency
The recovery of the traditional right’s political strength within the Democratic Center, led by now-candidate Paloma Valencia, revitalizes the right’s chances of regaining the presidency it lost in 2022, after Gustavo Petro’s victory in the presidential elections.
Yesterday’s election day showed that the political machinery and territorial structure of the Democratic Center party continue to carry considerable weight. Valencia managed to mobilize a base that remains loyal to Uribismo, and that sees in her a clear ideological continuity.
That support not only repositions her within the right, but also gives her a central argument for the coming weeks: The idea that the Democratic Center remains the main organized force in that political sector.
Moreover, her result reinforces the perception that the traditional conservative electorate has not disappeared, but rather was dispersed. In that context, Valencia now appears as a candidate capable of rebuilding a coalition that combines the loyalty of the Uribista base with the attraction of voters seeking an alternative to the current government.
Recovering votes that polls had effectively lent to De La Espriella now seems more feasible than it did yesterday. However, the important question is not whether Valencia or the far-right lawyer manages to obtain the second-highest vote total in the May 31 election — the first place seems clearly destined for the leftist Cepeda — but what they may achieve together in the second and decisive vote on June 21.
Despite denying his Uribista affiliation in the past, De La Espriella now misses no opportunity to display his devotion — Uribismo in Colombia is practically a religious phenomenon — to former president Alvaro Uribe. In this regard, and with the explicit order he issued today to his supporters not to attack Valencia in the presidential campaign that is just beginning, both candidates are laying the groundwork for an understanding between them for June.
The search for the political center: Valencia and Cepeda seek it
One of the most important challenges for the Democratic Center candidate will be expanding her electoral base beyond her traditional core. If she wants to compete with real chances in the presidential election, Valencia will need to attract voters from the political center without losing the support of her conservative base.
That move will not be easy. Democratic Center has a very marked ideological identity, associated with the political legacy of Alvaro Uribe and with an agenda that for years defined the public debate in Colombia with a firm commitment to an uncompromising right, which today — at least rhetorically — has been overtaken by De La Espriella’s populist narrative.
However, the political polarization of recent years has pushed many moderate voters to seek options away from the extremes, and now both Valencia’s right and Cepeda’s left understand that they must seek them out to consolidate not only their strong results but the final victory.
In that context, Valencia will need to build a discourse capable of engaging sectors that do not fully identify with Uribismo but who could be willing to support a right-wing candidacy if they perceive it as a viable alternative to the political project of the left.
Left-wing unity that may not be enough
While the right reorganizes its leadership, the left appears to be entering the presidential race with a much more concentrated landscape. The election day made clear that its main reference is Ivan Cepeda, who emerges as the candidate with the greatest support within that political sector.
The low vote obtained by Roy Barreras, one of the figures who had been trying to build an alternative from the dissident left, significantly reduced the margin of competition within that space. The result suggests that a significant portion of the progressive electorate is aligning behind a single candidacy.
However, one of Barreras’s strategists, Xavi Vendrell, recalled that to achieve victory it was necessary to attract the political center — something that until now had not concerned Ivan Cepeda, although today he has already called on his supporters in that direction. It may be too late.
The concentration of the left around the figure of the human rights defender Cepeda could become a strategic advantage for the left, which could enter the presidential campaign with a more clearly defined leadership than that of its rivals.
However, it also limits its capacity to expand toward moderate sectors if the candidate ends up being identified exclusively with a specific ideological base — something Barreras had always denounced to justify maintaining the failed primary in which he participated yesterday, despite Cepeda’s forced exclusion by the National Electoral Council (CNE).
An open political board for Colombia’s presidential election
Despite the shifts produced by the legislative elections, the Colombian presidential scenario remains deeply uncertain. The fragmentation of the political system, the emergence of independent candidacies, and the volatility of the electorate mean that any forecast is still premature.
What does seem clear is that the right — both in its traditional version and in its independent and populist branch — is today in a more competitive position than it was just a few months ago. Paloma Valencia’s result has revitalized the Democratic Center and demonstrated that the conservative space maintains a significant electoral base, beyond the noise surrounding De La Espriella.
If that strength manages to be articulated around a common strategy or, at least, avoid excessive fragmentation — something both candidates have already said they will do in the second round — the sector could reach the presidential election with real options of recovering the political power it has historically exercised in Colombia.
For now, all possibilities remain open, but Sunday’s election sent an unmistakable signal: The race for the presidency has just entered a new phase, and no, Ivan Cepeda does not have the presidency won. Not yet.