The first presidential poll published in Colombia after the legislative elections and the inter-party primaries held on March 8 confirms that the race for the presidency has become more competitive in a scenario in which 14 candidacies will compete and whose registration closes today.
The survey by the firm Atlas-Intel—published at the request of Semana magazine—shows that the contest, which for months seemed headed toward a duel between two contenders, is now opening up to three candidates with clear chances of competing in the first round of the elections on May 31.
The poll once again places the pro-government candidate, Iván Cepeda, in first place in voting intention, but with two right-wing contenders consolidating behind him. Lawyer Abelardo De la Espriella appears in second place, while Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia surges strongly into third place after winning the right-wing primary, configuring for the first time a scenario of three-way competition.
New poll show three-way race for Colombia’s presidency
The study confirms that Iván Cepeda continues to lead the presidential race—with 36.4% of voting intention—and maintains the advantage he has held in recent months. The pro-government candidate records the highest level of voting intention in this first measurement after the March 8 vote, reinforcing his position as the favorite to lead the first round.
The survey shows that Cepeda maintains a solid electoral base among voters who support the continuation of the current government’s political project. His candidacy, consolidated after the progressive bloc’s primary, continues to concentrate support from left-wing sectors and from part of the electorate that backs the reform process promoted by the executive branch.
Despite remaining in the lead, the senator’s leadership does not appear to be a decisive advantage. The poll shows that the opposition vote is beginning to reorganize and that the contest for second place is becoming increasingly relevant as the presidential first round approaches.
In second place appears, as until now, lawyer Abelardo De la Espriella—with 27.9% voting intention—who manages to consolidate himself as the main alternative to the pro-government candidate. The independent right-wing contender confirms with this measurement that he has managed to build a significant electoral base among voters most critical of the government.
Over the past months, De la Espriella has focused his campaign on a message of frontal opposition, emphasizing security, institutional strengthening, and direct criticism of the country’s political direction. That positioning has allowed him to capture an important share of the conservative vote and of sectors seeking a right-wing candidacy outside the traditional parties.
The poll result confirms that his candidacy remains the main point of reference for that electorate. However, it also shows that the political space of the right is beginning to fragment with the emergence of another competitive contender.
Paloma Valencia enters the race strongly
The main novelty of the survey is the emergence of Paloma Valencia in third place—with 17.5% voting intention. The senator and candidate of the traditional right manages to quickly position herself among the contenders with the greatest chances in the presidential election.
Her rise appears directly linked to her victory in the right-wing coalition primary held on March 8. That win allowed her to consolidate herself as the official candidate of that political bloc and project her candidacy nationwide. In addition, with the integration of Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate, Valencia’s ticket seeks to mark its own profile in contrast with De la Espriella.
The impact of that result already appears to be reflected in the poll. Valencia manages to place herself in third position and surpasses other contenders who until now had been competing for a place among the main competitors in the presidential race.
Her candidacy represents the political project of the traditional right linked to Uribismo and to conservative sectors seeking to regain prominence in the electoral arena. In that context, her rise introduces a new dynamic within the opposition camp.
Following the three frontrunners are the two candidates considered centrist: Sergio Fajardo (7.8%) and Claudia López (1.7%), with left-wing congresswoman Clara López closing out the top six (1.2%).
Candidates register less than 1% voting intention
Beyond the percentages of these candidates—which could be decisive in tipping victory to one side or the other in a possible runoff—in the first round more contenders are running, apparently without real chances.
In this sense, the Atlas-Intel study explains that of the total of confirmed candidacies, 11 — now six, following the resignations of Juan Fernando Cristo, Maurice Armitage, Felipe Córdoba, Daniel Palacios and Luis Carlos Reyes, who will be Mauricio Lizcano’s running mate — do not even reach 1% voting intention for May 31.
In order of voting intention they are grouped as follows: Roy Barreras (0.9%); Juan Fernando Cristo (0.8%); Luis Gilberto Murillo (0.7%); Santiago Botero (0.6%); Felipe Córdoba (0.6%); Maurice Armitage (0.3%); Sondra Macollins (0.1%); Luis Carlos Reyes (0.1%); Daniel Palacios (0.1%); Miguel Uribe Londoño (0%); and Mauricio Lizcano (0%).
Two candidates who ultimately also entered the race were not included in the study: former Magdalena governor, progressive Carlos Caicedo, and former General Gustavo Matamoros, whose inclusion brings the total to the 14 final candidates registered for the first round.
Finally, the study establishes that the percentages of undecided voters, blank votes, and null votes show variations, reaching up to 32% in some projections, reflecting a high degree of uncertainty and potential abstention.
The measurement also includes trends for blank votes, null votes, and people who would not vote, representing between 1% and 7%, which suggests that although there are clear leaders, the outcome of the election could once again depend on the behavior of undecided voters.
An election that is no longer a duel
The main political effect of this first poll after the March votes is that it redefines the map of the presidential race. For much of the pre-campaign, the scenario seemed to be heading toward a confrontation between Cepeda and De la Espriella.
The emergence of Valencia as a third competitive candidate transforms that dynamic and opens a more fragmented scenario within the right-wing electorate. While De la Espriella represents an independent candidacy with an anti-system message, Valencia embodies the political structure of the traditional right with signals toward more centrist sectors that do not want another left-wing government.
That division could become one of the key factors of the campaign in the coming weeks. Both contenders will compete for a similar electorate while trying to consolidate themselves as the strongest alternative to the pro-government candidate. Nevertheless, an alliance between the two conservative candidates in a possible runoff offers real chances of defeating the frontrunner Cepeda, since the sum of the two exceeds 45% of voting intention in this first round.
The result is a presidential race more open than expected just a few weeks ago. With Cepeda—who, without participating in the inter-party primaries, made it clear last Sunday that he is the only candidate with real options on the left—still in first place, but with two right-wing candidates disputing the opposition space, the May 31 election now appears as a contest with three main protagonists in which no outcome seems guaranteed.