The heavy rains falling in several regions of Colombia are representing a heavy toll for coffee growers. The beginning of the year marked by rain has not only left humanitarian tragedies such as that of the department of Cordoba, but has also pushed to the brink of a severe crisis one of the most emblematic sectors of the Colombian economy: coffee.
The effects of the rains, which had been warned about beforehand, are manifested in two ways: the deterioration of productive capacity and the increasingly lower availability of the bean. “The result of what Colombian coffee farming is facing today due to incessant rains was predictable: lower productivity. If we add to this depressed prices and costs at high levels, it confirms that the coffee business in 2026 will be very demanding,” warns German Bahamon, general manager of the National Federation of Coffee Growers, in a message on X.
To demonstrate his concern, Bahamon presents the data for the first quarter of 2026: between January and March, production reached 2.51 million 60 kg bags, compared to 3.78 million in the same period of 2025, which represents a drop of around -33.5%. March, with 754 thousand bags, did not correct the trend, but consolidated it, showing that it is not a temporary adjustment, but a more challenging productive reality at the start of the year.
“In the coffee year, between October 2025 and March 2026, accumulated production stood at 6.22 million bags compared to 8.68 million in the previous cycle, and in the measurement of the last twelve months it reached 12.41 million. The trend is clear and consistent,” adds the manager in his concerning presentation.
Colombian consumers maintain their consumption
He also explains that, in foreign trade, the lower availability of coffee has a direct translation: accumulated exports at the end of March reached 2.56 million bags, compared to 3.59 million in the same period of 2025, with a reduction of -29%.
On the other hand, in March coffee imports grew by +8%, and in the measurement of the last twelve months reached 1.33 million bags. “This behavior shows an adjustment aimed at guaranteeing industrial supply, in a context where domestic production faces greater restrictions,” he explains.
A relevant point is the signal sent by consumption. Despite upward pressure on retail prices, the Colombian consumer maintains demand, Bahamon adds. In the last twelve months, estimated domestic consumption stood at 2.28 million bags, confirming the resilience of a market that recognizes the value of coffee and sustains its consumption even in difficult scenarios.
For this reason, he concludes bluntly that the balance of the quarter does not admit “simplistic readings.” There is lower production and lower export capacity. The convergence of pressures: productive, climatic and cost-related, explains the difficulty that we face as the most important export sector of Colombia.
Faced with this situation, the Federation proposes a roadmap focused on productivity and climate adaptation. On that front, the role of Cenicafe is key to strengthening the resilience of the sector in the face of increasingly frequent climate events.