The El Nino phenomenon, which occurs when the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm above normal for several months, alter the circulation of the atmosphere, and change rainfall and temperature patterns in different regions of the world, could begin to manifest in Colombia in May, with a growing probability of consolidation toward midyear.
Concern in the country continues to grow because that situation usually represents less rainfall and more heat, which reduces the flows of rivers and reservoirs with clear consequences: it would affect hydroelectric power generation, the supply of drinking water and would exert pressure on sectors such as agriculture.
In the immediate term, professor Yuley Cardona, from the Faculty of Mines of the National University campus Medellin, doctor in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, gives a reassuring voice. “The latest reports show that El Nino is not yet consolidated. Although in the coastal region near Peru an anomaly of 1 °C is already recorded — above the threshold of 0.5 °C —, these conditions must be maintained for at least 3 months to officially declare an event,” she said, quoted by the UNAL News Agency.
Pacific Ocean already shows a transition toward warm conditions
“Climate models, both physical and statistical, indicate a transition toward El Nino, but it is still not possible to anticipate its intensity or its duration, since these depend on factors such as changes in winds and in atmospheric circulation, that is, in the way air moves and heat is distributed in the climate system,” she added.
She also warned that, although in the short term neutrality is most likely to continue, which means that the ocean and the atmosphere still do not show sustained signals of warming characteristic of El Nino, these conditions could begin to change starting in May.
Along those lines, professor Jose Daniel Pabon warned in the same outlet that the Pacific Ocean already shows a clear transition toward warm conditions. After the La Nina period, between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, monitoring systems showed a progressive warming that could consolidate into an El Nino event toward the middle of this year, and extend until the beginning of 2027.
But Pabon prefers caution. For him, beyond the intensity that the phenomenon may reach, the fundamental thing is to prepare from the territories — municipalities and departments — and from productive sectors. The call is not to speculate about whether it will be catastrophic or not, but to anticipate its effects.
The recommendation is to get informed and prepare
In fact, for now climate prediction centers have not ventured to define its magnitude, due to the complexity of the processes involved. For that reason, the recommendation is to closely follow official reports from the National Committee for the Study of the El Nino Phenomenon, and to prepare because, for example, in the countryside, the lack of moisture in soils decreases crop productivity and increases the risk of losses, while high temperatures favor droughts and forest fires.
Even in coastal areas of the Pacific a temporary increase in sea level can occur, with possible flooding, which could also have an impact on public health: the increase in temperatures and changes in rainfall create favorable conditions for the proliferation of mosquitoes that transmit diseases such as malaria, dengue, zika and chikunguna.
Faced with all these scenarios, professor Oscar Mesa, from the Department of Geosciences of the Faculty of Mines of the UNAL campus Medellin, explained, quoted by the UNAL News Agency, that “through voluntary saving measures it is possible to reduce demand in significant percentages without major impacts on well being”. And he recalls experiences such as those of California (2000-2001) and Brazil (2001-2002), where it was possible to reduce consumption by up to 25 %. In Bogota, during supply crises, it was also shown that the rationalization of consumption can generate effective results.