Colombia could face a profound transformation in the way it supplies the fuels that power its economy. If current trends continue, the country may be forced to import nearly 50% of the gasoline consumed by households, businesses, and productive sectors by 2031, a historic shift for a nation that has long relied on domestic oil production and refining capacity to meet most of its internal demand.
Such a scenario would not only alter Colombia’s traditional energy model but also increase its exposure to global market volatility, exchange-rate fluctuations, and geopolitical disruptions that could affect fuel prices and economic stability.
The warning was issued by six of Colombia’s most influential energy organizations through the publication of the report ‘Hydrocarbons for Colombia’s Development’, a document intended to highlight the growing risks associated with declining oil and gas reserves, falling production, rising imports, and a sustained reduction in exploration investment.
The report was prepared by the Colombian Petroleum and Gas Association, (ACP), the Colombian Natural Gas Association (Naturgas), the Colombian chamber of Oil, Gas, and Energy Goods and Services (Campetrol), the Colombian Association of Engineers, (ACIEM), the Colombian Association of energy Geologists and Geophysicists (ACGGP), the Colombian Association of Petroleum, Energy and Technology Engineers (ACIPET), organizations representing a substantial portion of Colombia’s oil and natural gas value chain.
Their central argument is that Colombia still has an opportunity to preserve its energy self-sufficiency, but that window is narrowing rapidly as multiple economic, regulatory, operational, and security pressures converge.
Among the factors cited are the natural depletion of mature oil and gas fields, a sharp decline in exploration spending, regulatory uncertainty, lengthy environmental licensing and prior consultation procedures, operational blockades, attacks on pipelines and other critical infrastructure, illegal fuel connections, and increasingly intense regional competition for international investment.
These structural challenges are compounded by volatile global energy markets and the depreciation of the Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar, both of which can significantly raise the cost of imported fuels when domestic production falls short.
For industry leaders, the debate over hydrocarbons extends far beyond the future of fossil fuels. It touches on the government’s ability to finance social programs, maintain royalty revenues for producing regions, create jobs, and ensure that Colombia’s economy continues to operate with reliable and affordable energy.
In that sense, the discussion is not only about what powers vehicles, factories, and households, but also about how the country sustains public finances and regional development in the years ahead.
Oil and gas reserves are raising serious concerns in the country
One of the most troubling indicators highlighted in the report is the steady decline in Colombia’s proven reserves. According to the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), the country currently has enough proven oil reserves to sustain production for 7.2 years and natural gas reserves sufficient for only 5.9 years under present conditions. While these figures do not imply that Colombia will literally run out of hydrocarbons at the end of those periods, they illustrate how limited the current reserve base has become if no significant discoveries are incorporated into the national energy system.
Martha Villarreal, president of the Colombian Association of Petroleum, Energy, and Technology Engineers (ACIPET), has emphasized that Colombia’s oil reserves have remained largely stagnant since 2004, while natural gas reserves declined by approximately 43% between 2014 and 2024.
In her view, these numbers underscore the urgent need to strengthen exploration and accelerate technical and regulatory decisions that could unlock new resources. The situation is particularly concerning because reserve depletion is occurring while production itself is losing momentum.
According to the industry groups, national natural gas production fell 17.1% in 2025, while oil output declined 3.4%. Although the drop in crude production may appear moderate in isolation, its significance becomes more pronounced when considered alongside shrinking reserves and lower investment.
Frank Pearl, president of ACP (Colombian Petroleum and Gas Association), has repeatedly stated that “energy security is an essential condition for Colombia’s competitiveness, well-being, and economic stability,” emphasizing that maintaining adequate domestic production is critical not only for the sector itself but for the broader economy.
The prospect of importing half of Colombia’s gasoline
The projection that has drawn the greatest public attention concerns Colombia’s future dependence on imported liquid fuels. According to ACP estimates, if current trends continue, the country could be importing as much as 50% of the gasoline it consumes by 2031.
The same analysis suggests that diesel imports could account for approximately 3% of domestic demand, while jet fuel imports could represent around 20% of consumption beginning in 2027.
In practical terms, this would mean that a growing share of the fuel used to power cars, trucks, industrial machinery, aircraft, and agricultural equipment would depend on foreign suppliers and on market conditions beyond Colombia’s direct control.
Such dependence would leave the country more vulnerable to international price spikes, shipping disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and exchange-rate volatility.
A rise in global oil prices or a weaker Colombian peso could rapidly increase import costs and create upward pressure across the economy, affecting transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and consumer prices.
Natural gas already offers a clear preview of what greater external dependence can look like. Approximately 25% of Colombia’s current gas consumption comes from imports, a share that has grown as domestic production has declined.
For the industry groups, this trend serves as an early warning that Colombia must strengthen its internal supply before reliance on imported fuels becomes a structural feature of the national energy system.
Lower investment and rising operational risks
Exploration is the mechanism through which countries discover new oil and gas fields and replace reserves that are gradually depleted over time. Yet between 2021 and 2025, investment in oil and gas exploration in Colombia fell by roughly 42%, according to figures cited by ACP.
This decline stands in contrast to developments in several neighboring countries, where governments have introduced incentives and regulatory frameworks designed to attract capital and expand exploration activity.
Frank Pearl has warned that lower investment directly reduces Colombia’s ability to identify and develop new resources, thereby weakening energy security over the medium and long term. Without a sustained flow of capital into exploration, the country risks entering a cycle in which declining reserves lead to lower production, which in turn increases dependence on imports and further erodes competitiveness.
The operational environment has also deteriorated significantly. During 2025 alone, the industry groups reported 1,363 blockades, more than 580 attacks on critical infrastructure, and 1,078 illegal connections affecting pipelines and other essential systems. These incidents generate delays, environmental contingencies, higher operating costs, and substantial uncertainty for companies and for the state.
The consequences extend far beyond the energy sector itself. Lower investment and heightened operational risks translate into fewer jobs, reduced tax revenues, and smaller royalty payments to producing regions.
In many municipalities, those resources help fund schools, hospitals, roads, sanitation systems, and community development initiatives that directly affect quality of life. For that reason, industry leaders argue that protecting the energy sector is also closely tied to safeguarding regional prosperity and public investment.
The strategic role of natural gas and the Sirius project
While oil often dominates public debate, natural gas has become increasingly central to Colombia’s energy outlook. Naturgas has emphasized that natural gas benefits more than 36 million Colombians and remains essential for cooking, industrial production, commerce, and electricity generation.
In millions of households, it is the primary energy source for preparing meals and heating water, while industries rely on it for a wide range of energy-intensive processes.
Luz Stella Murgas, president of Naturgas, has described natural gas as “the fuel of the transition,” arguing that it can complement the growth of renewable energy while providing the reliability needed when solar and wind generation fluctuate because of weather conditions. In her view, natural gas offers a pragmatic bridge between today’s energy needs and a cleaner long-term energy matrix.
One of the most important discoveries supporting that outlook is Sirius, an offshore project located in the deep waters of the Colombian Caribbean, off the coast of La Guajira. The field is being developed by Ecopetrol and Petrobras and has been described as one of the most significant natural gas discoveries in Colombia’s recent history.
Sirius is the commercial evolution of the exploratory well originally known as Uchuva-2, where testing confirmed substantial volumes of gas beneath the seabed. According to estimates released by Ecopetrol and Petrobras, the project could contain enough resources to supply close to 40% of Colombia’s natural gas demand for approximately a decade, although final figures will depend on ongoing technical evaluations and the eventual development plan.
If brought into production as expected, Sirius could substantially reduce the need for imported liquefied natural gas, lower Colombia’s exposure to international price swings, and strengthen domestic energy self-sufficiency.
Developing a project of this scale, however, requires sophisticated subsea infrastructure, offshore facilities, environmental approvals, multibillion-dollar investment, and several years of engineering and construction before gas can reach households and industries. Even so, for much of the energy sector, Sirius stands as a powerful reminder that Colombia still possesses considerable untapped potential.
Industry proposals to avoid greater external dependence
In response to these challenges, the industry groups have outlined a series of recommendations aimed at restoring investor confidence and reinforcing Colombia’s energy self-sufficiency.
Their proposals include assigning new exploration and production areas, signing contracts that provide legal stability, reducing the sector’s tax burden, accelerating environmental licensing and prior consultation procedures, and strengthening security to protect critical infrastructure.
The organizations also advocate for the development of unconventional resources in regions such as the Middle Magdalena Valley, expanded enhanced recovery projects, and the adoption of carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies.
For natural gas development, they identify Sinú-San Jacinto, the Lower Magdalena Valley, the Llanos Foothills, and La Guajira as strategic areas with significant future potential.
The objective, industry leaders emphasize, is not to halt Colombia’s energy transition but to ensure that it unfolds in an orderly and technically sound manner. In their view, renewable energy and hydrocarbons can coexist for many years while the country strengthens infrastructure, deploys emerging technologies, and gradually diversifies its energy mix.
The underlying question, therefore, is not whether Colombia should move toward cleaner sources of energy, but how to do so without jeopardizing supply, economic stability, and the financial resources that support regional development.
If the industry’s warnings prove accurate and Colombia ultimately imports half of the gasoline it consumes, the country would enter a new era of external dependence with potentially significant consequences for prices, competitiveness, and energy sovereignty. For the sector, there is still time to avoid that outcome.
But as reserves decline, investment weakens, and operational risks mount, energy security is emerging as one of the most consequential debates shaping Colombia’s economic and social future.