Chile heads into a presidential runoff being held today, Sunday, marked by political tension that runs through the streets, social media, and everyday conversations. After a first round with no clear majorities—though with a slight edge for the leftist candidate—the country now faces a decision that many analysts describe as a plebiscite on the political, economic, and cultural direction it should take in the coming years.
The final stretch of the campaign has been dominated by a harsh tone, by calls to vote “out of fear” or “with hope”—typical of highly polarized contexts—and by a level of voter participation expected to be high, since voting is once again mandatory in Chile for this election.
In this climate, polls released in recent days show a slight advantage for far-right candidate José Antonio Kast over his rival, Jeanette Jara, in a race that remains open. The gap, within the margin of error, reflects not only the narrowness of the electoral landscape but also the deep division running through Chilean society, polarized between opposing views on the role of the state, social rights, and public order.
Decisive, polarized election day in Chile as voters choose Gabriel Boric’s successor
The runoff pits two candidates who embody clearly antagonistic political projects. José Antonio Kast has built his campaign around a message of order, security, and reducing the size of the state, appealing to sectors concerned about rising crime, irregular immigration, and economic uncertainty.
His conservative rhetoric—despite a certain moderation compared with 2021, when he lost to Gabriel Boric—continues to emphasize authority, in line with other politicians of the same ideology in the region. This discourse has earned him solid backing among voters who believe the country needs a firm turn after years of incomplete reforms and social tensions.
At the opposite end of the spectrum stands his rival, the communist Jeanette Jara, who has defended the continuation of an agenda of change with an emphasis on social rights, environmental protection, and strengthening democracy.
Her message seeks to consolidate advances in inclusion and equity, warning of the risks that, in her view, a far-right government would pose to civil liberties and the consensus built since the return to democracy. This clash of visions has reduced the space for ambiguity and forced voters to take a clear stance.
Polarization has been the dominant feature of recent weeks. Campaign teams have focused on mobilizing their most loyal bases, while appeals to the center have had limited reach.
On social media, disinformation and emotional messaging have amplified the sense of confrontation, reinforcing ideological bubbles that are difficult to break. In this context, televised debates have served more to reaffirm positions than to persuade undecided voters.
The slight advantage that polls give to Kast has intensified the final stretch. His supporters see the surveys as confirmation of a change in the political cycle, while the other bloc insists that the race remains open and that mobilizing young and urban voters could reverse the result. Recent experience in Chile, where forecasts have failed on more than one occasion, fuels caution on both sides.
Polls favor the far right in Chile: migration and insecurity are key issues
Although Jara won the first round, held on November 16, Kast, of the Republican Party, has the backing of libertarian Johannes Kaiser and former mayor Evelyn Matthei of the traditional right. The combined vote share obtained by the three in the first round exceeds 50%.
For her part, Jara, a communist member of the Unidad por Chile coalition, would need to almost double the 26% she achieved in November—below expectations—to win the runoff.
What is clear is that migration and insecurity continue to push far-right rhetoric upward, linking the two issues and focusing on the entry of Venezuelan citizens, many of them in irregular status in Chile.
This has meant that in all polls published this December, José Antonio Kast appears as the clear winner. In some studies, by as much as 15 percentage points more than his rival.
The weight of Gabriel Boric’s legacy
Hovering inevitably over this election is the assessment of the outgoing government of Gabriel Boric. He came to power as the youngest president in Chilean history, with the promise of channeling, through institutions, the demands that emerged from the social uprising.
His term has been marked by progress in some areas, such as the social rights agenda and foreign policy, but also by difficulties in consolidating parliamentary majorities and by an adverse international economic context. Nevertheless, his main failure was his government’s inability to secure public approval for a new Constitution.
Likewise, issues such as migration—especially Venezuelan migration—and growing insecurity weigh down the legacy of a president who said more than he did, even for his most loyal supporters. For his harshest critics, Boric symbolizes a project that generated high expectations and results perceived as insufficient, particularly in terms of security and growth.
The fact is that most analysts agree that Gabriel Boric failed to meet the enormous expectations generated by his election four years ago, something that could work against the left-wing candidate, who served as Boric’s labor minister until last April.
Just hours before the vote, uncertainty remains the dominant factor. Mandatory voting introduces an additional variable by bringing in citizens who did not participate in the first round and whose preferences are harder to anticipate. The electoral geography, with marked differences between regions, rural areas, and large cities, adds complexity to any projection.
What happens today will not only define the next president, but could also reshape geopolitics in the Western Hemisphere, since, if the polls are borne out, a victory by Jose Antonio Kast would lead Chile to join the group of Latin American countries moving closer to Donald Trump’s policies, following the cases of Ecuador, Bolivia, and possibly Honduras.
Related: Far-right Candidate Jose Antonio Kast Wins Chile’s Presidential Election.