Oil prices surged again this Tuesday on international markets, driven by the deterioration of negotiations between the United States and Iran. The price per barrel surpassed US$110, with gains of over 2%, amid a scenario marked by geopolitical uncertainty and fears of a prolonged energy supply shortage.
The spike is due to a dual blockage: on one hand, the lack of agreement over Iran’s nuclear program; on the other, the paralysis of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical chokepoints for global hydrocarbon trade, which has remained almost completely blocked since last March.
The combination of both factors has drastically reduced available supply and reignited fears of a broader energy crisis that could even threaten commercial flights.
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Failure of US–Iran talks sends oil prices soaring
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for nearly a fifth of global oil trade, making it a key artery for the stability of energy markets. However, the current crisis has pushed traffic to minimal levels, with a drop that has effectively paralyzed the flow of oil tankers and strained the entire supply chain.
Restrictions imposed in the area, combined with security risks and rising costs to insure cargo, have reduced maritime traffic to residual figures. At times, navigation data has shown only one or two vessels entering over entire days, reflecting a collapse close to an operational shutdown of this strategic passage.
This partial blockade has had an immediate effect on prices. The lack of steady flow from major Gulf producers has cut crude availability on international markets, increasing upward pressure on prices. Analysts agree that, until normal conditions are restored in Hormuz, the market will continue to operate under a high risk premium.
In addition, the situation has triggered a domino effect in other energy sectors. Derivatives such as diesel and aviation fuel have also seen significant increases, fueling fears of a global inflationary spike if the crisis persists.
Against this backdrop, and following the U.S. rejection of Iran’s latest proposal, Brent crude surpassed US$110 per barrel today, while stock markets in Asia and Europe were trading lower. According to international reports, a vessel carrying Emirati gas managed to cross the strait for the first time since March, but overall maritime traffic through the passage remains down by 95%.
The conflict in the Middle East has not only driven up energy prices and weighed on stock markets, but has also triggered a global inflationary surge.
The nuclear dispute and diplomatic deadlock
At the same time, dialogue between Washington and Tehran remains stalled, with deep differences over the scope and timing of any potential agreement. Iran has put forward proposals that delay discussion of its nuclear program, while the United States insists that this issue must be addressed as a priority.
This disagreement has prevented concrete progress in normalizing maritime transit and reducing military tensions. In fact, one of the main sticking points remains the demand that Iran limit its uranium enrichment capacity, something the regime has repeatedly resisted.
The negotiations have also been marked by mutual distrust. Washington has rejected some Iranian proposals as insufficient, while Tehran accuses the United States of maintaining pressure measures that hinder any diplomatic progress.
In this context, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been made conditional on a broader agreement that includes security guarantees and verifiable commitments. However, the gap between the two positions suggests that a resolution will not be immediate, prolonging uncertainty in the markets.
Investors view the current scenario as a structural rather than a temporary risk. The possibility that the conflict will drag on, combined with the lack of immediate alternatives to replace Gulf supply, has led markets to anticipate a prolonged period of high prices.
Adding to this is concern over the long-term impact on production. Some projections warn that if Iran faces limitations in exporting and storing its oil, it could be forced to reduce output, affecting the market’s future ability to recover.
United Arab Emirates Leaves OPEC
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced that it will leave both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance (which includes additional oil-exporting members) due to “disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” according to the country’s official news agency.
The decision will take effect on May 1 and will allow the country to increase its crude production. Recently, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the country’s export volumes, as it was the target of attacks on its energy facilities.
The OPEC is an intergovernmental organization that coordinates the petroleum policies of some of the world’s leading oil-producing countries. It was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by five nations: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Over time, other members joined, including the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, and Algeria.
OPEC’s main objective is to stabilize oil markets, ensuring an efficient and regular supply of crude oil, as well as fair prices for both producers and consumers. To achieve this, it sets production quotas among its members, directly influencing the global oil supply.
One of the key moments in its history was the 1973 oil crisis, when several Arab member countries imposed an embargo that triggered a sharp increase in prices and demonstrated the cartel’s power in the global economy.
Today, OPEC remains a central player in the energy market, especially through alliances such as OPEC+, which includes other major producers like Russia.
This situation adds tension and division in a region hit by political conflict and on which global energy stability largely depends.