China’s birth rate has tumbled to its lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, official data shows. The country has also reported a population decline for the fourth consecutive year. The demographic crisis has deepened despite aggressive government efforts ranging from cash subsidies to tax hikes on contraceptives.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the number of registered births dropped to 7.92 million in 2025, a 17% decrease from the 9.54 million recorded in 2024. The birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people, while deaths outnumbered births by a significant margin. The total population shrank by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, accelerating the decline seen in previous years.
“China is facing a severe challenge posed by an extremely low fertility rate,” said Wu Fan, a professor of family policy at Nankai University to the New York Times. In the same report by the Times, Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, noted that births in 2025 were “roughly the same level as in 1738, when China’s population was only about 150 million.”
China has declared childbirth a patriotic act in an effort to increase the birth rate
The Communist Party has attempted to reverse the trend by pulling various policy levers, including declaring childbirth a “patriotic act” and nagging newlyweds about family planning. This year, the government allocated 90 billion yuan (US$12.9 billion) for a nationwide childcare subsidy program and plans to expand health care insurance to cover IVF treatments.
However, officials have also resorted to controversial measures. On Jan. 1, a 13% value-added tax was placed on contraceptive drugs and condoms, removing them from the tax-exempt list.
While not explicitly stated as a birth-boosting policy, the move was widely interpreted by the public as an attempt to make avoiding pregnancy more difficult.
Young people in China don’t want to have children
Young people in China continue to resist government pressure, citing high youth unemployment, a slowing economy, and the exorbitant cost of raising a family. A Chinese think tank estimates the average cost of raising a child to age 18 is 6.3 times the country’s GDP per capita, compared to 4.11 times in the United States.
The demographic shift poses a long-term economic threat. The number of citizens aged 60 and over is projected to reach 400 million by 2035, roughly the population of the U.S. and Italy combined. This rapidly aging cohort will rely on a shrinking workforce for support. In response, the government raised the retirement age last year for the first time since the 1950s.
Marriage rates, a leading indicator for births, also plummeted by a fifth in 2024, though a slight uptick was recorded in late 2025 following relaxed registration rules. Still, matchmaking event organizers in Beijing report a shrinking interest in marriage.