The climate outlook for the second half of 2026 has raised alarms among national and international meteorological institutions. Several global models predict that the El Niño phenomenon could reach historic intensity, comparable —or even superior— to the 1997–98 and 2015–16 events, considered the most devastating of the past century. Although experts insist it is still “too early” to determine its final magnitude, signals from the Pacific Ocean point to exceptional warming that could trigger a water, energy, and economic crisis in Colombia.
Early signals and models point to a “Super El Niño” in late 2026
Alerts emerged after reviewing climate models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which show oceanic and atmospheric anomalies that favor a high-intensity event. Researchers at Yale University have also warned that the current state of the Pacific resembles the patterns preceding what they call a “Super El Niño,” characterized by extremely high sea-surface temperatures and stronger-than-usual global effects.
In Colombia, IDEAM and the Ministry of Environment issued an early warning in March 2026, indicating that the likelihood of development increases toward midyear. If confirmed, the phenomenon could extend into early 2027, increasing the cumulative impact on sectors such as energy, agriculture, and public health.
Critical risks for Colombia: Water, energy, and agriculture under pressure
The most severe effects are expected on water availability and energy generation. Reservoir levels could drop by up to 30%, compromising the country’s hydroelectric capacity and raising the risk of power rationing. Several energy authorities have already warned that the system is in a “critical state,” especially if rainfall decreases sharply in the Andean and Caribbean regions.
The agricultural sector also faces a worrying scenario. Water-sensitive crops such as rice, coffee, and dairy production could suffer significant losses due to drought conditions and rising temperatures. These impacts would directly affect food prices, pushing inflation upward and reducing the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households.
In terms of public health, experts anticipate a “super heatwave,” with record temperatures and high UV radiation levels. This would increase the risk of heat strokes, skin conditions, and dehydration, especially among older adults and children. Natural ecosystems would also face a higher incidence of forest fires due to dry soil and vegetation.
A climate event that could mark a turning point
If projections hold true, the 2026 El Niño event could become the strongest of the century. Extreme ocean warming, the possibility of prolonged duration, and its global impact differentiate it from previous occurrences. Unlike past decades, today’s interconnected climate and economic systems amplify the consequences, affecting everything from agricultural production to international supply chains.