The latest technical analysis by the national government on the El Niño phenomenon indicates that the probability of it becoming established in Colombia rose from 62% to 82% during the May-June-July 2026 quarter. On the other hand, projections indicate a possible consolidation close to 96% toward the end of the year. The data could not be more revealing. The country will definitely face this worrying climate scenario.
International climate models even foresee an intensity between strong and very strong, higher than previous estimates. The United States Climate Prediction Center has just pointed out that the El Niño phenomenon is likely to emerge soon (82% probability in May-July 2026) and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27 (96% probability in December 2026-February 2027).
The signs are becoming increasingly clear. During the first 13 days of May 2026, significantly warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded in different regions of Colombia, a situation that coincides with a decrease in rainfall and a significant increase in the probability of the development of El Niño-type conditions in the coming months.
Preventive actions for better preparedness
Currently, the tropical Pacific Ocean continues under an ENSO-neutral condition (Southern Oscillation), reported the IDEAM, the Ministry of Environment, and the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD). However, oceanic and atmospheric signals associated with a transition toward El Niño are evident, among them the increase in sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region, the increase in subsurface heat content and the weakening of the trade winds.
“This complex situation shows that we are facing a climate variability scenario, where the intensity of the phenomena and the severity of their impacts are greater,” assured acting Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development Irene Vélez Torres. “This obliges us to maintain permanent multiscale interinstitutional coordination, and to commit ourselves to preventive actions that allow better preparedness and mitigation of greater impacts.”
For her part, Ghisliane Echeverry Prieto, director of the IDEAM, recalled that the entity “warned that since March 2026 there has been a sustained decrease in rainfall compared to climatological averages in several regions of the country, a situation that could intensify during the coming months.”
The entities pointed out that below-normal rainfall recorded during recent months could favor the eventual development of El Niño occurring in an already deficit context. This situation would also coincide with the second drier season of the year, between June and September, especially in the Andean and Caribbean regions, which could intensify pressures on the country’s water availability.
It is essential to save water and energy
“The call is to adopt measures starting now, activate contingency plans and be prepared for droughts, possible water shortages and pressure on the energy system, particularly toward the end of the year,” warned Carlos Carrillo, director of the UNGRD. “It is essential to save water and energy and identify the areas with the greatest risk of forest fires.”
The entities warn that the conditions recorded during recent months show an increase in climatological anomalies, with below-expected rainfall and high temperatures. In addition to the increase in temperatures, a significant increase in forest fire alerts was evident.
Between May 1 and 14, 2026, alerts rose from 7 records to 90 nationwide. The Caribbean region concentrated approximately 51.1% of municipalities with active alerts, especially in departments such as La Guajira and Magdalena, where dry atmospheric conditions and high daytime temperatures persist.
These conditions have favored a greater incidence of solar radiation, decreased humidity and progressive deterioration of environmental conditions in different regions of the country. According to the short-term analysis and climate prediction by the IDEAM for May 2026, a greater recurrence of dry days and below-normal rainfall is expected in broad sectors of the country, especially in the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions.
Likewise, temperatures are expected to continue above historical averages, particularly in the Caribbean, Island and Orinoquía regions and in the inter-Andean valleys. The Government assured that it will continue permanently monitoring climate and oceanic conditions, issuing technical information and timely recommendations to support decision-making and risk reduction throughout the national territory.